Thursday, July 21, 2016

Taney County weather for work week starting July 25!

If you happen to be the type of person that thrives in the heat, you've likely been really enjoying the last seven days down here in southwest Missouri. For the rest of us, it's been a real battle just to stay cool! So, what's on tap for the coming work week, beginning on Monday, July 25?

The good news is that there will be a cold front heading towards us from up north. The bad news it that it will have a tough time making it down to the Missouri – Arkansas border. But, have heart. As the front sags its way into our area on Monday or Tuesday, we could well see some welcome thunderstorm activity along with a brief respite from the hellish temperatures. Just how much relief will depend on how far that old girl sags southwards....

Friday, July22 - If you look carefully on my webpage national map - you'll see that the center of rotation is moving off the the southwest. That would be a good thing!

There's got to be a Sunday after.....The upper ridge will begin to retrograde a bit on Sunday, which should allow for a greater concentration of afternoon thunderstorms along/south of I-44. Temperatures will be ever so slightly cooler across this area, with readings in the low to mid 90s. But, slightly higher dew points will again result in heat indices between 103 and 105. Temperatures north of the Interstate will again reach the mid to upper 90s.

By early Monday morning, the upper ridge looks to recenter over the southern High Plains, resulting in weak/disorganized zonal to northwest flow across the forecast area. A series of shortwaves moving across the I-80 corridor will push a synoptic front south into the northern part of Missouri, where it will stall for much of the coming work week. Nightly MCS (clustered storms) activity will probably result in some north to south oscillation to the front, as the boundary is modified by convective outflow and differential heating.

For the Ozarks, this should result in a steady diet of scattered thunderstorm activity for much of the week. Convective potential will likely be centered around 1. the remains of overnight convective complexes and/or 2. afternoon pulse thunderstorm activity. Widespread severe weather does not seem likely during this time period, though any given round of thunderstorms could bring with it a few marginally severe wind gusts, depending on mesoscale factors.

This increase in precipitation and associated cloud cover will help knock temperatures back to around climatological norms, which are around 90 degrees or so this time of year.

Long term guidance suggests a pretty steady state to the overall synoptic pattern through next weekend, with the upper ridge remaining centered over the southern High Plains and southern Rockies. []

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