MONDAY – JAN 22
Strong surfacelow pressure over the Great Lakes will move off to the east as a ridge of high pressure over the Plains edges east. Expect northwest winds to gradually continue to diminish during this period. A shortwave will move southeast into the area by 12z/6am Wed but there is only a slight sfc reflection of this in pressure fields and only minimal cloud cover this far south.
Looks quiet with a north-south oriented surface ridge axis moving through the region. I plan to take a long nap!
South-southwest winds will increase as the sfc high shifts east and low pressure moves into the High Plains. Daytime highs in the upper 50s to around 60, afternoon humidity near 30 percent, and winds gusting to 30-35 mph over the western Missouri Ozarks Highlands into west central MO and southeast KS will heighten the fire danger. Our western cwfa missed out on significant precip with the last storm. In any case, one hour lag time grass/brush fuels will dry out quickly.
FRIDAY & SATURDAY
There is good agreement with guidance (other than some minor timing differences) for this period with a sfc low tracking well to the north and a trailing sfc front approaching and moving through Fri night-Sat. Looks like we will see a good chance for rain/light showers. Rainfall amounts don't look too
impressive with a lack overall moisture in a prefrontal highly modified Gulf air mass.