Notes on August 2016 vs 2017

 As months go, August 2016 was pretty average. We had 15 days that were above the average temperatures of 89ºF. With a combine average of 79.3ºF versus a 30 year historical average of 76.5ºF, it was easy to see that those warmer nighttime temperatures were something to be concerned about. (After all, the only true measurement of Global warming comes from just how low the temps drop during the nighttime)! That said, one must remember that my weather station is just one single dot of data and really did not mean much when data from all over the world is looked at...

Rainfall, at 2.01 inches was considerably behind the 'normal average' of 3.41 inches. That merely reflected the mini drought we were in for the entire year. Something that had since been corrected with the flooding rains of April and May of 2017! As of August 2017, we were still about 4 inches ahead of the average. That was the good news, the bad news is that all the other months, thus far, had fallen short of the average for rainfall.

Taney County Weather Aug 6 to the 12th!

SUNDAY - MONDAY

Starting later on Friday, August the 5^th, the next 48 hours looks to be a rather wet period with several rounds of storms and heavy rainfall expected.

Periods of heavy rain and storms will be ongoing through the day Sunday and through early Monday morning as a very slow moving frontal boundary drifts to the southeast into northern Arkansas. This will continue the threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding. This will be especially true for storms that train over the same areas along the slow moving front. This period looks to have the highest potential for flooding rains to occur with 2 to 4 inches currently forecast by the majority of the models.

TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY

Monday afternoon through the majority of Wednesday looks more quiet with surface high pressure moving over the area behind the weekend storm system. This will be a needed break as models bring another system with the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall to the area for the later half of the week. Depending on the model you look at the rain could begin again as early as late Wednesday night to Thursday morning and continue into next weekend.

The one silver lining with the forecast is the unseasonably cool temperatures that are expected through next weekend. High temperatures are forecast to only climb into the upper 70's to lower 80's each day.

FRIDAY, AUGUST 11

A front will pass south through the Ozarks on Friday as the stronger short wave energy dives across the southern Great Lakes. The potential for showers and storms will continue into Friday, especially across southern Missouri.

DA WEEKEND

The big question then remains how far south of the area that front will get from this weekend into early next week. The west- northwest flow aloft will likely persist through the entire period. At this time, it still appears that the best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. Areas of central Missouri may see little in the way of precipitation this weekend.

Global models and ensembles continue to indicate that the heaviest swath of rainfall may remain just to the west and south of the Missouri Ozarks from south-central Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. There is still decent consensus for a solid 3-6" of rainfall through the weekend across that area. Areas of southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri are in line to get more in the 1-3" range, with the highest amounts near the Oklahoma border.

There are no plans for any kind of Flash Flood Watch at this time with the best signal for excessive rainfall remaining to our west and south. However, we will continue to monitor the situation closely as a shift to the northeast with the heavy rainfall axis may warrant a threat for flooding across portions of the area.

Our streak of below normal temperatures will continue through at least the middle of next week.

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Taney County weather for first week of August 2017!

MONDAY - FRIDAY

Weather conditions ideal for outdoor activities are expected through the rest of the weekend and well into next work week.

A Canadian high pressure system will provide a continuous feed of Great Lakes air into the Ozarks Region. This will bring cooler temperatures with comfortable humidity levels on a daily basis. Afternoon highs will warm into the middle 80s from Sunday through Thursday afternoon.

The next chances for precipitation will occur Wednesday through Friday. Although, there doesn't appear to be a signal for widespread rainfall at this time. Therefore, some locations could remain dry into the second week of August.

Weather forecasts for last workweek of July 2017!

MONDAY, July 24, 2017

A few isolated showers/storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across southern Missouri, generally south of an Anderson, to Springfield to a Salem Missouri line. Coverage in any activity that can develop will be limited and overall most locations should remain dry. Any locations that are effected by any isolated activity should only be so briefly as this activity will be short lived in nature.

TUESDAY

Lows tonight will drop into the upper 60's to the lower 70's. An upper level ridge will slowly nudge east across the Plains on Tuesday. Highs will be similar to those today but maybe a degree or two warmer. Moisture will be slow to return so heat index values should again be in the middle to upper 90's Tuesday afternoon.

WEDNESDAY

The ridge will build into the region on Wednesday allowing temperatures in the middle to upper 90's to return. Moisture will also increase allowing heat index values between 100 and 105 to return. A Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of the area on Wednesday.

THURSDAY

An upper level shortwave trough will then dive south and push the ridge back to the west Thursday into Friday. A front will slide south through the area during this time and could spark some scattered showers/storms across the area. This may be very similar to the front that moved through the area over the weekend with not widespread coverage in rain occur, being more hit and miss in nature.

FRIDAY

Another upper level trough will dive south through the area reinforcing the ridge remain to the west of area. Could be some spotty convection, but again not looking at widespread rain or a washout by any means. This will result in cooler conditions Friday into Monday as highs in the 80's and lows in the lower to middle 60's are expected each day.

Work week #3 in Taney County MO!

MONDAY - FRIDAY

It's a HEAT WAVE!! A high pressure dome will edge closer to the area each day this week. This will shut off any precipitation potential and send high temps into the middle to upper 90's. Have trended temps up a degree or two given such a strong mid level high which looks to come right over us on Thursday and Friday, thus these two days will be the hottest.

Heat indicies will range from 100-110 this week with the highest heat indices Thursday and Friday. Confidence is increasing that Heat Advisories will be needed by mid week. Those with heat sensitives, outdoor workers and those without air conditioning will need to prepare for the heat this week. No precipitation is expected this week given this regime.

Taney County July work week two!

SUNDAY

Moisture will begin to return to the area on Sunday, though overall conditions look pretty reasonable for early to mid July, with highs within a degree or two of 90. There will be an outside chance for a couple of thunderstorms Sunday afternoons with peak heating, but for most places, Sunday should be a dry day.

This period of time will also allow for the lake levels to continue to go down to more reasonable levels....

MONDAY & TUESDAY

The upcoming workweek continues to look like very typical for this time of year, with highs each day around 90 and lows a degree or two on either side of 70. What I call the summer doldrums. Overall rain chances will be low, though any given day could bring with it just a couple of short-lived popup thunderstorms with peak afternoon heating. For most of the area, however, it's more likely than not that it will be a dry stretch.

WEDNESDAY

The center of the upper level ridge of high pressure is right over the Ozarks Region this morning. This weather pattern may bring the hottest day so far this Summer season. We will add another degree or so to afternoon temperatures again today. Model guidance under performed on yesterday's surface dew points across portion of Southeast Kansas into Central Missouri where areas saw heat indices over 105. With a similar set up again this afternoon, more areas will see that heat indices between 105 to 108 especially for areas northwest of I-44.

THURSDAY

Most of the area should remain rain free through Thursday afternoon. A front will slowly sag southward into the region Thursday night through Saturday midday. We will see scattered shower and storm chances across the area. The overall best chance for rainfall appears to be Friday morning through Friday evening. There may be enough instability for an isolated strong storm or two but we are not expecting widespread severe weather at this time.

General overall rainfall amounts on average will range from 0.25 to 0.75 of an inch. Where storms set up and train over the same area, there could be locally heavier amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible but not widespread in nature. We are not expecting any significant hydro concerns at this time.

The front clears south of the area late Saturday with drier conditions following Sunday into early next week. Another upper level ridge of high pressure begins to build across the region early to middle of next week with more heat and dry weather. It could get quite toasty around the area by middle of next week. www.taneyservices.com

Taney County week of the fourth of July!

MONDAY

I think Monday will be mix of clouds and sun to the north with generally cloudy conditions expected closer to Arkansas. Best rain chances similar to yesterday will reside along the Arkansas border

and portions of far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri later this afternoon and overnight. Lake of The Ozarks region has the lesser rain chances, at least through the short term period, though a rogue shower or storm can't be ruled out across central MO. No widespread severe weather is anticipated at this time due to marginal shear, however, the stronger cells may contain some strong gusty winds.

TUESDAY - Happy Fourth if July!!

A more well established mid-level impulse/vort max will roll into our region, unfortunately right in time for Independence Day festivities.

As we head into Tuesday daytime and evening, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will slowly spread east and north across the Missouri Ozarks. The threat for severe storms looks marginal, especially for fireworks celebrations in and around Taney county. Any severe threat would be confined to line segments with a damaging wind threat.

As the vortex slowly slides eastward, we'll need to monitor not only a threat for some strong thunderstorm winds, but also localized flash flooding given the slow forward progression of the vort/short wave, which may not fully move out of our area until Wednesday or even by early Thursday.

WEDNESDAY

As the the trough finally clears, a strong upper level ridge should spread east at least temporarily from the Rockies. This should limit rainfall chances and increase afternoon temperatures just a bit. Being on the eastern side of this high, northwesterly flow will still be over our region. Guidance does swing a few minor impulses down our way from the northern plains, which should cause at least a subtle increase in diurnally driven showers/storms. This may also keep temperatures in the middle and upper 80's vs the lower 90's.

THURSDAY & Onward

We should then get a break in the action on Thursday with at least a low-end chance for storms returning on Friday as a front approaches from the north. Global models then insist on a northwesterly flow aloft becoming more amplified from this weekend into early next week. This would support that front moving south into the Missouri Ozarks, or perhaps even south of the area into Oklahoma and Arkansas. Ultimately, the position of this front will dictate precipitation chances. At this point, we have kept PoPs in the 20-30% range from this weekend into early next week.

Temperatures should return to near normal values towards the tail end of this abbreviated work week before we again see a slight cooling trend with the arrival of that front this weekend.