Work week #3 in Taney County MO!

MONDAY - FRIDAY

It's a HEAT WAVE!! A high pressure dome will edge closer to the area each day this week. This will shut off any precipitation potential and send high temps into the middle to upper 90's. Have trended temps up a degree or two given such a strong mid level high which looks to come right over us on Thursday and Friday, thus these two days will be the hottest.

Heat indicies will range from 100-110 this week with the highest heat indices Thursday and Friday. Confidence is increasing that Heat Advisories will be needed by mid week. Those with heat sensitives, outdoor workers and those without air conditioning will need to prepare for the heat this week. No precipitation is expected this week given this regime.

Taney County July work week two!

SUNDAY

Moisture will begin to return to the area on Sunday, though overall conditions look pretty reasonable for early to mid July, with highs within a degree or two of 90. There will be an outside chance for a couple of thunderstorms Sunday afternoons with peak heating, but for most places, Sunday should be a dry day.

This period of time will also allow for the lake levels to continue to go down to more reasonable levels....

MONDAY & TUESDAY

The upcoming workweek continues to look like very typical for this time of year, with highs each day around 90 and lows a degree or two on either side of 70. What I call the summer doldrums. Overall rain chances will be low, though any given day could bring with it just a couple of short-lived popup thunderstorms with peak afternoon heating. For most of the area, however, it's more likely than not that it will be a dry stretch.

WEDNESDAY

The center of the upper level ridge of high pressure is right over the Ozarks Region this morning. This weather pattern may bring the hottest day so far this Summer season. We will add another degree or so to afternoon temperatures again today. Model guidance under performed on yesterday's surface dew points across portion of Southeast Kansas into Central Missouri where areas saw heat indices over 105. With a similar set up again this afternoon, more areas will see that heat indices between 105 to 108 especially for areas northwest of I-44.

THURSDAY

Most of the area should remain rain free through Thursday afternoon. A front will slowly sag southward into the region Thursday night through Saturday midday. We will see scattered shower and storm chances across the area. The overall best chance for rainfall appears to be Friday morning through Friday evening. There may be enough instability for an isolated strong storm or two but we are not expecting widespread severe weather at this time.

General overall rainfall amounts on average will range from 0.25 to 0.75 of an inch. Where storms set up and train over the same area, there could be locally heavier amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible but not widespread in nature. We are not expecting any significant hydro concerns at this time.

The front clears south of the area late Saturday with drier conditions following Sunday into early next week. Another upper level ridge of high pressure begins to build across the region early to middle of next week with more heat and dry weather. It could get quite toasty around the area by middle of next week. www.taneyservices.com

Taney County week of the fourth of July!

MONDAY

I think Monday will be mix of clouds and sun to the north with generally cloudy conditions expected closer to Arkansas. Best rain chances similar to yesterday will reside along the Arkansas border

and portions of far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri later this afternoon and overnight. Lake of The Ozarks region has the lesser rain chances, at least through the short term period, though a rogue shower or storm can't be ruled out across central MO. No widespread severe weather is anticipated at this time due to marginal shear, however, the stronger cells may contain some strong gusty winds.

TUESDAY - Happy Fourth if July!!

A more well established mid-level impulse/vort max will roll into our region, unfortunately right in time for Independence Day festivities.

As we head into Tuesday daytime and evening, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will slowly spread east and north across the Missouri Ozarks. The threat for severe storms looks marginal, especially for fireworks celebrations in and around Taney county. Any severe threat would be confined to line segments with a damaging wind threat.

As the vortex slowly slides eastward, we'll need to monitor not only a threat for some strong thunderstorm winds, but also localized flash flooding given the slow forward progression of the vort/short wave, which may not fully move out of our area until Wednesday or even by early Thursday.

WEDNESDAY

As the the trough finally clears, a strong upper level ridge should spread east at least temporarily from the Rockies. This should limit rainfall chances and increase afternoon temperatures just a bit. Being on the eastern side of this high, northwesterly flow will still be over our region. Guidance does swing a few minor impulses down our way from the northern plains, which should cause at least a subtle increase in diurnally driven showers/storms. This may also keep temperatures in the middle and upper 80's vs the lower 90's.

THURSDAY & Onward

We should then get a break in the action on Thursday with at least a low-end chance for storms returning on Friday as a front approaches from the north. Global models then insist on a northwesterly flow aloft becoming more amplified from this weekend into early next week. This would support that front moving south into the Missouri Ozarks, or perhaps even south of the area into Oklahoma and Arkansas. Ultimately, the position of this front will dictate precipitation chances. At this point, we have kept PoPs in the 20-30% range from this weekend into early next week.

Temperatures should return to near normal values towards the tail end of this abbreviated work week before we again see a slight cooling trend with the arrival of that front this weekend.

Taney County work week 4 including the Fourth of July!

MONDAY

Showers and isolated thunderstorms could linger into Monday due to a mid level front that becomes established across southern Missouri. Computer model runs, however, don't generate much instability, therefore, severe storms are not expected.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY

From Tuesday through Thursday night, other than an outside shot of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly warm and dry conditions are expected through the mid week period. Look for the mercury to climb back towards the upper eighty degree mark!

As the work week goes on a weak zonal front will evolve, and eventually re-positions to the southwest toward the weekend. Not only will temperatures warm a few degrees, shower and thunderstorm chances increase.

FRIDAY – SUNDAY the FOURTH

As a matter of fact, medium range models bring a complex of storms through southern Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning. Heavy rain will be a possibility, along with a potential severe risk. Shear will be modest, although instability will be sufficient for organized storms as moisture depth increases.

The fourth of July weekend will have the potential for being somewhat active across southern Missouri. Anyone that has plans for participating in outdoor activities should closely monitor later forecasts regarding potential thunderstorm activity for that weekend. www.taneyservices.com

Taney County Work week three in June!

MONDAY

A cooler air mass will spread into the area Monday behind the front that went through on Sunday. Highs will warm into the upper 70's to the lower 80's on Monday with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60's occurring during the evening hours.

TUESDAY

Warmer conditions will then return Tuesday through the rest of the week as highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's occur each afternoon.

WEDNESDAY

The warming trend will linger into Wednesday as highs reach the upper 80's to low 90's and heat index values warm into the low to mid 90s. Not expecting much in the way of rain chances until about the Thursday time frame.

THURSDAY

Heading into Thursday, PW (Precipitable Water) values of 1.5 to around 2.0 inches will be possible along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor, with the higher amounts across south central MO. It looks as if models are keeping the track slightly further to the southeast of the area than last nights model runs. Our thunderstorm chances start on Thursday, but will mainly be over the eastern Ozarks initially as energy from around the tropical system moves into Arkansas and south central MO.

FRIDAY

On Friday, a southward moving front will push into the area and offer the best chance at showers and thunderstorms, with the tropical low pushing into the boot heel and quickly into the TN valley. Precipitation may shut off pretty quickly on Friday evening in the wake of the low and front.

Models are showing some differences heading into the weekend. GFS wants to keep things dry behind the front, while ECMWF brings another wave of energy and precipitation into the area Saturday night into Sunday. Will keep the low end pops going through the weekend.

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Going with cooler than normal temperatures from the weekend into the early part of next week behind the front with a cooler air mass moving into the region.

Precipitable Water - A measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb. www.taneyservices.com

June week 2ish weather for Taney County!

MONDAY

Monday will be even warmer as 850mb temps rise to 20C. Most locations along and north of I-44 will reach 90 with a few low 90s possible. With 700mb temps between 10-14C, it will be hard to get

precip, none the less clouds. The exception will be across far south central Missouri (Oregon county) where an isolated shower or storm is possible since the cap will be a tad weaker there.

TUESDAY

A strong upper level trough will move into the Northern Plains Tuesday with a trailing front into Kansas and Oklahoma. Areas across the eastern Ozarks may see an afternoon shower or storm however confidence is not high in this given warm mid level temps and little forcing available. With 850mb temps around 20-21C, expect highs around 90 again. Showers and storms will fire in KS and OK Tues evening as shortwave energy approaches. Most or all of this activity will stay west of the area given increasing convective inhibition during the Overnight hours.

WEDNESDAY

Frontal boundary pushes closer Wednesday afternoon and this may be our best shot at showers and storms given that the air mass will likely be pretty unstable. Wind shear looks less than 30kts however instability will be high therefore will need to monitor for stronger storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday also looks warm with highs around either side of 90.

THURSDAY

Frontal boundary then looks to become diffuse or go stationary across the area from Thursday into the early part of the weekend. A zonal mid level pattern will exist during this time. This signal would suggest several chances for showers and storms during this time frame. Otherwise temps look to remain in the mid to upper 80s.

Heat index values this week will likely reach the middle to potentially upper 90s across portions of the area with the areas north and west of Interstate 44 into the Osage Plains favored. While this is not uncommon by any means, it will be the warmest it has "felt" so far this calendar year.

June work week one for Taney County!

 WEEKEND

It was beginning to feel a bit like summer, over the weekend, what with the lazy clouds and pop up shower chances. That trend will continue through Sunday, June the 4th and on into the coming work week.... a pretty boring stretch weather wise!

MONDAY

Most of the area should stay dry on Monday, though a couple of showers/storms are possible through early afternoon across the Missouri/Arkansas state line. Cloud cover will clear as the day goes on, with lower dew points building into the area by afternoon and evening.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY

Tuesday and Wednesday continue to look like very nice days, with highs both days in the upper 70s to around 80, and lows in the 50s.

THURSDAY

Upper ridging will begin to build back into the area Thursday into the weekend. There will be chance for thunderstorms late in the workweek as a couple of shortwaves move through the area, though

the overall setup doesn't look terribly impressive. Temperatures look to return to the mid 80s by the end of the workweek into next weekend. www.taneyservices.com