Taney county work week #2!

MONDAY, MAY 8

A slight upper level ridge will be over the southern U.S. And Lower Mississippi River Valley Region to start off this week. Southwesterly winds will be a little breezy on Monday and Tuesday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will be joined by warmer temperatures with most locations getting up into the lower 80s both Monday and Tuesday. We might even see a few middle 80's.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 10

A moist and unstable air mass is in place across the area and this will aid in the development of additional showers and storms through Tonight. While the main synoptic front is located across Northern Missouri west into Northern Kansas, an effective front/trough is located further south from Central Missouri back into West Central Oklahoma. Impulses riding up from the south have contributed to pockets of storm development, most remaining just to our north and west thus far. Will be watching the evolution of storms across Southern and Central Oklahoma this afternoon and evening as they approach the area ahead of a lead impulse over the Red River Valley. The atmosphere is ripe for organized storms with 1500j/kg of ML cape along with 40-50kts of effective bulk shear. If storms can get organized then large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Locations along and north of Interstate 44 are most favored for this activity.

Most model guidance thus far has struggled with the evolution of showers and storms and thus caution must be used with them. There is a signal that the heavier axis of showers and storms may be pushed further south into our area tonight vs locations to our north given a strong low level jet developing and interacting with this trough/effective boundary. While uncertainty in this scenario is high, it would have implications on our qpf amounts overnight and this will need to be monitored. A severe threat will exist for most of the night as the environment will not change much. Shear profiles will actually become more favorable for storms heading into the overnight hours.

There will likely be ongoing showers and storms Thursday morning across the area and this will be key as to what it does with the true synoptic front. Models have the front along the Interstate 44 corridor Thursday afternoon. Forecast soundings off the GFS reveal a class splitting super cell profile with large hail being the most prominent threat. Mid level lapse rates will be steep and CAPE will be plentiful especially in the hail growth zone. Thinking that robust thunderstorm development is possible along the front in the afternoon with hail to the size of golf balls possible. There is a conditional threat for a tornado if storms can ride the front and increase effective helicities. This will be evaluated more closer to tomorrow. A Slight risk for severe storms is across most of the area for Thursday with locations along and south of Interstate 44 most likely to be affected.

THURSDAY, MAY 11

Slightly cooler weather returns for the end of the week. www.taneyservices.com

Taney County MO work week #2!

MONDAY

A weak front will push across the area Monday night and Tuesday as a shortwave trough tracks along U.S/Canadian border. Moisture flux ahead of this system will be just enough to generate some patchy

drizzle or light rain especially across the eastern Ozarks.

WEDNESDAY

The front will return northward as a warm front on Wednesday allowing for even warmer temperatures. Highs in the lower 60's will be common Wednesday.

A more active weather pattern will unfold late in the week into the weekend as a powerful storm system pushes onto the west coast then digs into the desert southwest. The evolution of this system remains highly uncertain with model solutions differing significantly.

THURSDAY

By late Thursday evening, a low level jet and isentropic upglide will commence across southern Missouri as upper level low pressure digs south along the central California coast. We are expecting

precipitation to break out across far southern Missouri and begin spreading north into the Highway 60 corridor by sunrise. We have a hunch that this precipitation may start sooner than some models

are indicating...possibly even before midnight over parts of southern Missouri.

Precipitation type will largely be freezing rain (or freezing drizzle) tonight as the freezing line should make it at least to the Missouri/Arkansas border. Our hunch is that it will actually make it farther south into northern Arkansas. There may be a few pockets of sleet mixed in as there will be some weak instability available.

FRIDAY

Model solutions further diverge Friday night into Saturday resulting from different handling of the upper low coming out of desert southwest. The GFS model paints a colder scenario and greater potential of wintry precipitation including freezing rain while the ECMWF model brings warmer air northward with less potential for wintry precipitation. In either case active weather is expected with the potential of moderate to heavy precipitation amounts.

Again it is emphasized that this is a low confidence forecast with uncertainty related to precipitation types and amounts. We expect additional changes and refinements to the forecast. Please stay tuned to the latest weather forecast as additional model data is analyzed. www.taneyservices.com