Monday, January 9, 2017

Taney County MO work week #2!

MONDAY

A weak front will push across the area Monday night and Tuesday as a shortwave trough tracks along U.S/Canadian border. Moisture flux ahead of this system will be just enough to generate some patchy
drizzle or light rain especially across the eastern Ozarks.




WEDNESDAY

The front will return northward as a warm front on Wednesday allowing for even warmer temperatures. Highs in the lower 60's will be common Wednesday.

A more active weather pattern will unfold late in the week into the weekend as a powerful storm system pushes onto the west coast then digs into the desert southwest. The evolution of this system remains highly uncertain with model solutions differing significantly.

THURSDAY

By late Thursday evening, a low level jet and isentropic upglide will commence across southern Missouri as upper level low pressure digs south along the central California coast. We are expecting
precipitation to break out across far southern Missouri and begin spreading north into the Highway 60 corridor by sunrise. We have a hunch that this precipitation may start sooner than some models
are indicating...possibly even before midnight over parts of southern Missouri.

Precipitation type will largely be freezing rain (or freezing drizzle) tonight as the freezing line should make it at least to the Missouri/Arkansas border. Our hunch is that it will actually make it farther south into northern Arkansas. There may be a few pockets of sleet mixed in as there will be some weak instability available.

FRIDAY

Model solutions further diverge Friday night into Saturday resulting from different handling of the upper low coming out of desert southwest. The GFS model paints a colder scenario and greater potential of wintry precipitation including freezing rain while the ECMWF model brings warmer air northward with less potential for wintry precipitation. In either case active weather is expected with the potential of moderate to heavy precipitation amounts.

Again it is emphasized that this is a low confidence forecast with uncertainty related to precipitation types and amounts. We expect additional changes and refinements to the forecast. Please stay tuned to the latest weather forecast as additional model data is analyzed. www.taneyservices.com

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