Thursday, November 24, 2016

Taney County weather week 4 of November!

Da Weekend

Saturday - A tranquil and quiet start to an otherwise interesting long range forecast this weekend. Upper level ridging will occur yet again (a little less subtle than today), which should warm us back into the upper 50's and lower 60's. Dry conditions can be expected at least through Saturday night and early Sunday.

Winds will likely increase on Sunday as pressure gradient tightens from a deepening surface low over Nebraska. Strong warm air advection will occur across the region, which should push temperatures into the upper 50's east and into the lower 60's across southeast Kansas. With the strong warm air advection, some scattered shower activity may be possible by Sunday afternoon. Going into Sunday night, the low occludes over the northern plains and the associated surface boundary slides as far south and east as eastern Kansas before it begins to slow down as it lines up with the upper level southwesterly flow.

Monday - Tuesday frame rainfall possible

The ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ) is certainly more progressive with the aforementioned system and pushes the frontal boundary through by late Monday. The GFS (Global Forecast System) is more bullish with rainfall as it keeps the front back across the Ozarks through the day Tuesday with a shear axis right over the region. This scenario would bring numerous rounds of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Needless to say, confidence is there that a system will push through early next week, however, exact details (e.g. true rainfall amounts) are still somewhat murky.

As for severe weather, given the aforementioned uncertainties, those chances for now at least are low, however, not zero. Shear will certainly be there, but as of now the primary limiting factor is the lackluster instability. We'll need to monitor this potential through the weekend, especially boundary layer moisture quality.


Upper low will continue to wobble around the northern plains into midweek leaving the region within a dry and seasonably cool southwest flow. Cooler air will descend into the region on the backside of the system Wednesday keeping temperatures below normal into next weekend.

Weekend Snow? No way!

Where there is agreement, at least for over the weekend, is that it does look like some moisture will be thrown northeastward into our area in a broad area of isentropic lift south of a surface high pressure over the Midwest and Ohio Valley. A quick look at the GFS thermal profile for KSGF indicates mostly rain but it`s close to some wet snow if the freezing level can drop a bit more than prognosticated. In either case, unless larger scale synoptic guidance takes another turn/changes (i.e. closer to the ECMWF), we are not
looking at much if any impact right now. The air mass expected to be in place is not overly cold. Right now the grids are a mixed bag of rain and snow Sat night into early Sunday depending on the surface and low level temperatures. Expected precipitation amounts (qpf) are not all that much, in general just a few hundredths to around a tenth of an inch over the weekend.

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