Thursday, November 17, 2011

CO2 as a benchmark for changes in climate!

"We are experiencing the greatest wave of extinctions since the disappearance of the dinosaurs. Extinction rates are rising by a factor of up to 1,000 above natural rates. Every hour, three species disappear. Every day, up to 150 species are lost. Every year, between 18,000 and 55,000 species become extinct. The cause: human activities." (Ahmed Djoghlaf, head of the U.N. Convention on Biological Diversity)

[click to enlarge]

I read somewhere that weather is the day to day reality of climate. While you can observe one the other stays well hidden. So, when a climatologist is asked pointedly if global warming is a fact, they cannot answer the question. But, if you were the rephrase it and ask, ‘are climatic trends loading the odds in favor of a warmer climate?’ You would more than likely get a positive answer.

Since I am not a scientist and therefore lack any credibility, I’ll answer the first question more matter of factly. ‘You bet you fanny it’s getting warmer and the worst is yet to come.’

I can say that not only because I’m not a scientist but also because you don’t have to be one to figure out that the species known as man is spewing carbon into the atmosphere as fast as he can go. There's an estimated 7 billion of us cooking and heating with gas, oil or coal or just finding whatever it is we can burn. As the earth warms from this activity, the weather tends to become a little more severe and even occasionally flaky. What's this mean for the future of the planet?

Looking at an ice core graph taken from Vostok, Antarctica, you can tell by the blue line that the amount of CO2 in the air in parts per million has never reached much above 300 ppm (red line) in over four hundred million years! It’s also pretty easy to see that every time those readings went up to that level, the earth was quickly plunged into another ice age. Looks like a pretty regular pattern doesn’t it? First the CO2 rises as does the global temperatures and then, in a relatively short time, down everything goes into the ice freezer. Now, while there are all sorts of theories as to the actual mechanisms at work here, everyone agrees that the CO2 levels along with other indicators like methane are good benchmarks to use. Anyone want to guess where the CO2 level is at today (see small graph)? Here’s a hint:


One other point. With a world population that is expected to rise to 9 billion by 2050, it's hard to see how we are going to curb carbon emissions to any significant degree. And, even if we could manage that miracle, many resources like food and fresh water will certainly become more scarce. Famine, disease and war could well become the norm. Not a very pretty picture for the future of this planet and it's inhabitants. While I think most adults now living will escape the direst of these futures, certainly our children and their children may face a perilous existence that would be brutal and short.

What's the answer to all my doom and gloom? Immediate and severe population control! We need the human population of earth to be cut in half, at the very least, over the next one hundred years. This can be done by the hand of man or by nature or of God. If man is going to do it, he'd better get on his high horse because time is flying by. My personal bet is on Nature and God.

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