Old Man Winter wakes up!

After nearly a month, in January, of chilly somnolence; contenting himself with an occasional cold wave or two, Old man Winter is back!

According to the National weather Service, the first week of February 2014 will be active! Now, when the NWS uses that particular word - ACTIVE, they ain't just playing around! As one weather forecaster put it, 'plan for the best, but expect the worst' when it comes to what might get thrown at the southwest Missouri corridor over the next few days!

Early on the morning of February the 1^st, it now looks like as many as four significant storms... make that winter storms - could impact the Branson-Forsyth area situated in Taney County Missouri. All of these frontal systems will likely include moisture in one of its many varied forms often seen in the winter time; mist, sleet, snow and ice are all in the forecast mix! And, right on cue, Saturday morning saw a light drizzle falling under overcast skies with temperatures in the mid forties. This warm scenario will likely last through the day before the cold front drops on down and changes the mist into some form of sleet later in the evening hours.

So, what's the most likely point at which; A) you'll want to get your grocery shopping done and B) the going gets a bit tough on the highways and byways? Two very good questions.

The first question is really more of a timing issue. The below freezing boundary on Monday morning was draped along the I-44 corridor and is not expected to drop down until the afternoon hours. At the same time a low pressure center will transit diagonally across the area (southwest to northeast) and winds will then begin to pick up from the north. This will set the stage for rapidly cooling temperatures that could result in some light sleet or freezing rain later into the afternoon and early evening. So be careful later today. That said, I don't see any real accumulation and the main roads should be OK. Then, on Sunday, I think our area and locations close to the Arkansas border will see up to an inch of snow from a system that will pass us to the south. This could occur in the afternoon hours on into evening. Based on that assumption, I'd get my vittles in no later than early Saturday afternoon which is today!

I think that the second question, about when it will get really nasty, will wait until sometime Monday night when 'all hell' will likely break lose (my opinion)! The mega weather computers are all coming into agreement that many of the factors needed to make travel next to impossible will slam into our area late Monday into Tuesday morning! So, any last minute procrastinators will need to hit the store for groceries on Monday morning latest! Then, my advice will be to hunker on down....

For an up to date look at the current weather, visit my site at www.taneyservices.com!

Disclaimer: The author of this post is a weather watcher, not a weather professional. The contents of this post constitute his opinions and may or may not be accurate.

February kicks off things with a possible winter storm!

After a somewhat normal January – the high and low averages were only slight below the 30 year averages, things look to get interesting on Saturday, February the 1^st. Freezing rain to the north of my home in Forsyth Missouri on Saturday and then a nice winter storm for the start of the work week! At this time, the estimates are for somewhere between a half and a full inch set to fall by early Tuesday morning. This forecast is still a bit up in the air and could swing from no snow to a lot of snow quite easily.

Typically the high and lows move up a bit in February – to 50 for daytime highs and 26 for lows. So, over the course of the month we might easily expect to see a few warmish days in the mid to upper sixties! Rainfall for the month should come in at around 3 inches – at least we can hope that is what happens. January was a big disappointment coming in at only an inch of precipitation.

More snow to start off February 2014!

Yes, it looks increasingly more likely that the cold and snowy weather we've had this season will continue with a few inches getting dumped on southwest Missouri on or about Monday late or Tuesday early! Prior to that event, central portions of Missouri may see some icing early on Friday, January the 31st.

The National Weather Service thinks that this will be an all snow event with most of the moisture (and therefore snow amounts) in and around the south central parts of the state! So, think about shopping and doing outside stuff over the weekend and then sit back and watch the snow fall....

In other news, the ambient radiation levels seems to be increasing for some reason. Normally Forsyth would see levels at about 11 micro roentgens per hour. Over the past few days, it's been average close to 14 with counts running at 28 per minute versus a more normal rate of 24.

Cold? I think not!

'Oh my gawd! It's so cold out there', I've been known to grumble to passerby as I've dashed from the warm confines of my vehicle to a local store. 'This has just got to be the coldest it's been in a long time', I lament to anyone who cared to listen.

The passersby just glance briefly my way and continue on their way.

The truth be told, this winter has been pretty much dull normal in terms of the high and low averages! The big difference, and what most of us might notice the most, has been what we all experienced in 2012-13 when temps were significantly above what they should have been! December 2012 saw readings, in and around Forsyth MO that were close to or at 70F on a number of occasions! Even January of 2013, typically the coldest month, was a little warmer than normal! So of course, by contrast this year has felt much colder. A few days in both months, where the temperatures flirted with zero or below also helped to enforce those feelings...

Now, with January 2014 fading into the rear view mirror, eyes are turning towards February while we all wonder how bad we'll get whacked in heating costs if the current cold trends continue! Still, I have to wonder where the heck Al Gore got off to? After all the hype, things remain pretty darn normal in all respects...

OK! So, it's gonna be a bad winter!

By most any measurement, the winter of 2013-14 is a bad one...even though we haven't made it to actual wintertime as of this post! So, far, I've recorded ten inches of assorted glaze, sleet, slush and snow starting on December 5^th and they tell me there's more to come long about the 19^th!

On a good note, it's been quite some time since we saw a decent snow pack this far to the south. Snow is a good thing as it insulates the ground living organisms while also providing a slow release moisture system that feeds animals and plants alike!

On the bad side of things, the thermometer has already dipped down to just a couple of degrees above zero with the average low since the 5^th at around 15F. That much cold has only served to keep my furnace running nonstop and will, I'm sure, reward me with a large electric bill at the end of the month!

Early December 2013 Weather Stats

Well, has this December's start been significantly different from 2012? You bet your britches it has!

Last year, December 1 to 9, the average high was 63°F versus this years 43°F – that's a full 20 degrees colder! And the lows? This year's 26°F versus last year's 44°F was also significantly lower. Another obvious difference is the snow pack that fell on the 5^th and which is still hanging around as

of the 9^th! A situation that may persist through the next coming days, but which will likely dissipate right before the 13^th when more snow is forecast! And, oh yes, we are still some ways from the official start of the winter season!

Both this year and the last were also a bit stingy in the rainfall department, with December 2013 at .61 inches versus the same time last year at .54 inches. 

December 5th weather may be mixed!

The first Thursday in December 2013 looks like it might get a bit interesting as the national Weather Service does not have a good handle on the precipitation types that may impact parts of southern and southwestern Missouri. Depending on the exact nature and depth of a 'warm nose' that will be draped over the border counties between Missouri and Arkansas, there exists the possibility for ice accumulations late Thursday, especially on elevated surfaces. At some point, this dome of warm mid level air will get pushed to the south. And, at that time, any additional precipitation would then fall as snow. Let me see...snow over ice...not a good idea! That said, accumulating snow is still expected across the entire area with the heaviest amounts falling from late Thursday into Friday morning. The snow will then taper off from west to east Friday afternoon.

Bitterly cold temperatures will then settle on in for Friday and the weekend with highs only in the mid to upper 20's! Overnight, the mercury may bottom out somewhere in the single digits and man, that will be pretty darn cold!!! But wait! Yet another frontal system may come through the area on Sunday, and while it isn't forecast to be as strong as the previous system, any additional stuff that falls from the sky will be in the form of snow and could add to the snow pack!

Anyway, a rather wintry start to the month!