Frigid spells not welcome!

Forsyth MO. – It was not very surprising that my little town of Forsyth Missouri, situated in the southwestern corner of the state, might get some cold air filtering down from the northern tier from time to time. On January the 28^th that time had apparently swung around.

Note: Cold to my way of thinking, real cold that is, happens whenever the mercury reads in the teens overnight. (Temperatures like that oftentimes cause my furnace to run like the devil)! And, it you add the insult of those readings to less than really cold daytime readings, well then, that's a definite problem!

The National Weather Service published this graphic on Saturday, January the 26^th.  It didn't take a genius to figure out that Tuesday and Wednesday (the 29th and 30th) were 'likely' going to cause some people some trouble. A high of 30°F and a low of 13°F averaged out to just about 21.5 degrees and that level of cold was more than low enough to freeze unprotected pipes and to kill pets, if left unattended outside. (I took some solace from the fact that those forecasts were for the Springfield MO area, which was about sixty mile to the north of my town). Still, I knew that it was going to be cold enough down my way to likely cause my electric company in Canada some great joy!

SOME PERSPECTIVE

Up to this point in time, the average recorded temperature had been at about 38.9 degrees. That was a few degrees above the normal of 33 for this time of year. (Global warming?). Even so, as the scatter chart at left illustrates, I was burning quite a bit of power just to stay warm! (For those not accustomed to this kind of chart, the y axis represents kilowatt hours used versus the average recorded temperature for the day. Basically, the colder it gets the more electrical power used as my place is all electric)! Note that, whenever the average temperature drops below 25 degrees the power trend tends to wander up off the scale! Not good, as even a 70 kWh day equated to about nine dollars real money!

So, the stage was set. I'll post a followup after we get through that period of time! www.taneyweather.com

An arctic outbreak is on the way !

Taney County, MO. – The graphic of temperatures this year versus last is very telling if the forecast for frigid weather bears fruit long about Wednesday, Dec 7^th ! Last year, in 2015, we all enjoyed tremendous and balmy weather for most of the month. Not so, for us in 2016! I'd advise everyone to make sure to perform a  winter checklist  on their dwelling to help insure a safe experience when it gets nasty outdoors. That sort of thinking also goes for anyone who has a long commute!

Latest feed from the Springfield weather service office: ' Temperatures will drop into the 20s Tuesday night with wind chills Wednesday morning in the teens. Models bring the arctic air mass into the region through the day Wednesday as moisture moves over the region. This will bring the potential for some light accumulation of snow for the Ozarks. The snow may mix with or change to all rain during the middle of the day before changing to all snow Wednesday night. Snowfall amounts from a few tenths up to 2 inches may occur before the system moves through the region. The best chance for accumulation will generally be along and north of I-44. Along with the snow will come temperatures falling into the teens, breezy winds and wind chills in low single digits to around zero degrees. In general, Thursday is looking to be a raw day.

Global computer runs are in agreement for a pretty cold series of days in the long range and even beyond. GFS has trended even colder and match the ECMWF pretty well at this point for late next week. ECMWF continues to funnel well below average temperatures into our region through next weekend. In fact, it shows many days of below freezing temperatures for our area. GFS isn't far off with the warmest temperatures being next Saturday, and those are only around 40 degrees at best. Regardless, confidence is there for a below average early to mid December.

 Looking down the road: Global models have then trended colder for next work week. This is especially true for the middle and later portions of the week as five wave charts indicate a deepening trough over eastern North America. If this pans out, another cold shot or two may be on the way.

www.taneyservices.com