Saturday, February 3, 2018

Taney County Wx work week 1 - 2!


The region will remain in a zone of broad lift in the mid level flow with limited moisture over riding the front across much of the area on Saturday. Model guidance continue to show light moisture as well as forecast soundings show a signal for freezing drizzle with the occasional light freezing rain shower or sleet shower. The main upper level system and support will arrive Saturday evening and night as it moves across the region. This feature will use what limited moisture is available and develop more areas of light freezing rain/drizzle and light sleet. There will be light snow across central Missouri back into eastern Kansas. All the light wintry weather will exit the area from west to east during Sunday morning. We are expecting at least a glaze of ice everywhere with up to a tenth to two tenths of ice possible for areas near I-44 and across southern Missouri. A coating of light sleet or light snow is possible everywhere with the best potential for up to a inch of snow across eastern Kansas into central Missouri.


Sunday will struggle to get much above the freezing mark with the lows dipping back down into the 20's. 


Monday will be a seasonable day with sunshine and quiet weather. A broad west to southwesterly flow will set up for early and mid week with southern winds return by Tuesday. We will see our temps respond nicely back into the 50's by Tuesday and 60's by Wednesday and Thursday!


The weather begins to improve on Tuesday as isentrophic upglide conditions bring in some overrunning warmer and moisture laden air! All that moisture will add to the cloud cover and a few showers, mainly over central and south Missouri would not be counted out!


Spring-like temperatures are still expected Wednesday into Thursday as southerly winds increase. High temperatures will climb into the 60's both days and cannot rule out a few locations reaching 70 degrees on Thursday.


A strong cold front will arrive Thursday night as a broad low amplitude trough transitions eastward across the the northern CONUS. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will with the
frontal passage, especially along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor where moisture quality will be better.


Strong cold air advection will follow the frontal passage on gusty northerly winds late Thursday night into Friday. This may bring a brief transition to light snow before the precipitation ends late
Thursday night into Friday morning. However little if any accumulation is expected.

Forecast certainty decreases this weekend into next week as a more active southwesterly flow evolves in response to a developing upper level trough out west. This will bring milder temperatures
back into the region along with periodic chances of precipitation into the middle of next week.

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