Big weather changes in store for last week of May!

Taney County MO – Beginning Monday, May 23, a large trough will develop across the western half of the U.S. This will put our region into an apparent southwestern flow of winds aloft which will bring in a goodly amount of Gulf moisture coming to us on southerly winds. Expect Monday and Tuesday to present themselves in stormy fashion as a result. Also, setting the stage for additional mischief will be a quasi-stationary front off to our west and northwest. This area will then be the source for several impulses of upper level energy that will move out across the flow and which will inter react with the frontal boundary in a negative fashion. This setup will provide us with a number of chances for thunderstorms.

Depending on timing issues and just how those impulse of energy track, there will be the potential for some strong to severe weather off to our west starting Monday afternoonish. How and when these areas will move on to the east is a subject of some debate as of this post. In any case, there exists the possibility for some moderate to heavy rainfall for a lot of folks – thinking 1 to 3 inches with the higher amounts occurring the more west you go. During this period of time, temperatures should remain at seasonal levels - 70's and low 80's daytime with 50's during the nighttime hours.

Update: Sunday, May 22

And so, after a great deal of fine weather on Sunday, the first of what will be several impulses of energy from a large system parked out west by the Four Corners Region will begin to affect only the most western Missouri counties by late Monday morning! The rain clouds should skirt us off to the west and should affect only extreme southwestern MO and then perhaps the central parts of the states later on Monday.

That's how things will remain for much of the rest of the week what with storms showing up here and there in a scattered and a disjointed fashion. We could see some severe action late in the week, perhaps about Friday.... But, please don't get too worked up. At this point many of the dynamic needed for really good storm development is lacking.

Update: Monday, May 23

The forecast for Tuesday through Thursday remains a little muddy due to the complexity of patterns seen by the modeling computers. That said, with the exception of possible storms occurring on Friday, the main threats move out of the area for the weekend with just a chance of some scattered instability here and there. The temps should be near seasonal levels somewhere in the low 80's.

Update: Tuesday, May 24

After receiving a rather limpish 0.08th of an inch on Monday (reminded me of me in bed), the atmosphere was expected to 'juice up' once again with dew points in the low 60's. Later in the day we might see some rain action both to our west and southwest, but it's doubtful we will get much over here in Taney County MO...Think repeat of Monday and you'd have it pretty much covered.... Onward brave soldiers to face another sluggish and overcast day!

Computer models continue to churn out a rather bad ass front set to impact our area sometime late Friday or early Saturday morning, before the whole mess exits the area stage right.

Update: Wednesday, May 25

A few drops expected here and there this date, but nothing like the torrential downpour a lot of us experienced on Wednesday!  Overall weather pattern to remain the same, however. Lost of moisture in the atmosphere, but no really energy packets until later in the work week.

 Out near California is the next packet of nastiness that could affect our little neck of the woods sometime about late Friday or early Saturday depending on just how a billion or so factors shake out....

Memorial Weekend

For Saturday through Memorial Day, pattern changes very little with general 'troughiness' across the west and southwest flow through the mid section of the country. This will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the period along with a warm and rather humid period. Certainly not everyday will be a wash out as there will be some dry periods, and given flow cannot rule out the potential for some episodes of severe weather as well.

And, here's some more good news, assuming you're all ducks. Apparently this pattern of on again rain will persist through next week!

[This information from the weather service was excepted and then twisted and otherwise mangled exclusively for www.taneyservices.com]