A warm December 2014!

SWMO. – It's a few days before Christmas at about 1:30 AM and the temperature outside is 45°F! A quirk of Mother Nature? Proof of global warming? I wasn't sure, but what I was pretty sure of was the fact that the warmer than normal temperatures were part of a curious pattern this December 2014.

I'd taken to calling the pattern 'the 40 Club'. Forty as in the average temperature. Take this date for instance. The high was 43.9°F while the low was 40°F giving an average for the day of 42°F. Typically, at this point in the month we would see day time high of around 46°F with lows close to 26°F. Not this year however as we are over 5 degrees above normal! All this much appreciated heat has resulted in a much small electrical heating bill and when combined with the record low prices for gasoline (currently $2 per gallon), have made a lot of people like me very happy.

A colder than normal November means high heating costs!

As the month of November 2014 closes itself out with average temperature of 6 degrees lower than what has been historically normal, the difference will really be felt in increased heating costs! This month, I will come in at about 1300 kWh versus a November 2013 total of just 890! In terms of cash, that will be about a $140 bill! An amount that will wipe out any savings I received from lower than expected gasoline prices (currently at $2.54 per gallon).

Rainfall for this month was a meager 1.73 inches versus a normal or average of 4.9 inches! So, overall the moderate drought situation for people like me, living in southwest Missouri continues unabated.

As they say, cheer up! Things might be worse. December is fast approaching and perhaps we'll make up for the lack of rain with a lot ice and snow!

Winter is neigh upon the land!

Even though the first day of official winter won't occur until December the 21^st, you'd have a hard time convincing me that it was not already in full force! Back to back snow storms currently threaten the northeast, with some locations just now digging out of record snow falls. Even here in southwest Missouri, the temperatures have been running a full six degrees below normal! Such activity begs the question – What will December be like?

Another brutal winter in 2014-15?

Last year, right about mid November, we were hit with a cold wave that saw the daytime temperature plummet to 21°F with the night dropping down to 19! Wow, now that was cold!

This year, right at about the same time, we are seeing not just a repeat, but an even more prolonged stretch of arctic air (vis a vie a Polar Vortex) that is forecast to last as long as a week. And, only time will tell just how severe it will get. One thing is for sure, the forecast high winds will make it seem even colder that what the mercury reads!

Already there is as much as 18 inches of snow in some of the northern states with a little white stuff predicted to fail in SWMO as early as the 15^th of the month! It's been a proven fact that early snow falls can augment just how brutal the coming winter might be. I think we'll get a chance to see if that has any truth to it this year, for sure.

Snow in November! What are the odds?

SWMO – Actually, the odds of seeing some snow in southwest Missouri in November are better than you might think! Areas like Joplin and Springfield can see up to .7 of an inch of the white stuff on any given year. This year, some experts are calling for cooler and wetter conditions than normal, so yes, I think the odds are somewhat fair to good.

Even soon as mid November, the National Weather Service has already begun to hint at a chance for wintry precipitation as a large arctic core of cold air settles into the Nation's middle. This shot of cold are will prevent the daytime temperatures from climbing out of the low 30's with nighttime temps falling into the 20's! Any moisture that makes it into the area could easily fall as snow or sleet. So, if you're a weather watcher, things could begin to get interesting much earlier this season...

The first freeze of the season is due on Saturday morning, Nov 1!

Last January snowstorm map

According to the National Weather Service, our first killing frost or freeze will hit southwestern Missouri long about November the 1^st! So, the month will likely enter in a chilly fashion. 

According to my personal weather records for the previous two years, 2013 got into cold temperatures early on and perhaps helped to set the stage for the brutal winter that was to come. Does anyone remember the term 'winter vortex'? That rather rare setup occurred last year and really plunged much of the nation into the meat locker over an extended period of time!

This year, the predictions for the winter of 2014-15 are all over the board. Some meteorologists see a mixed bag for much of the nation with southwest Missouri becoming colder and wetter than normal with more in the way of ice storms. I hope that one doesn't pan out.

A warm August 2014, thus far!

It's been a warm late August after a nice start was had earlier on the month! But, 100 plus temps following a string of 90 degree day that began on the 15^th has also put a real strain on my AC! I'm not looking forward to my electric bill for this month!

The weather has also been unusually dry with only .36 of an inch falling near my home in Forsyth Missouri. The average is 3.41 inches and we had over five last year! With another full week to go in this month, it will be interesting to see just how it finishes up!

July 2014 recap! Lower than normal temps!

Pieter Bruegel the Elder - Hunters in the Snow

Dryer and much cooler than what is normal. That would be the most precise way to define the weather we experienced over the SW portions of Missouri for July 2014! Rainfall was 2.28 inches versus a normal of 3.43. Average high temperatures were 86°F (versus 89°F) with lows at 63°F (versus a average low of 66°F). Those two combined for an average of 74.1°F versus what should have been 77.5 degrees! This whopping 3.4 degree lower difference is significant in my view. But, what is even more interesting was the overnight low average, which was three degrees below normal. (After all, it is essentially the night time lows that would signal a warming planetary trend, not the daytime highs)!

Valid for Forsyth Missouri

 Some food for thought there, (and yes, I realize this was only a local phenomenon while the Federal authorities continue to push a global warming agenda. That said, I'll make an early prediction that the coming winter will break records for being one of the coldest we seen in recent memory. In addition, I'd like to remind all that during the last Little Ice Age, temperatures all across the northern hemisphere exhibited wild gyrations from very hot summers to extremely cold winters and vice versa! As they say, the truth will out!

 A note about solar incidence: We are currently in solar cycle 24 which is the 24th solar cycle since 1755, when recording of solar sunspot activity began. It is the current solar cycle, and began on January 4, 2008, but there was minimal activity until early 2010. It is on track to be the Solar Cycle with the lowest recorded sunspot activity since accurate records began in 1750. Low sunspot activity over long periods of time could be an indicator of coming colder or highly variable weather patterns.

My initial view of the coming 2014-15 winter season!

According to the experts,  we may be in for an El Ninõ style winter here in the US! That would mean warmer than normal temps to the north and wetter than normal stuff to the south. I'll go out on a limb and initially forecast a much colder than normal regime for just about everyone. I base this prediction of the lower than normal solar max we've been experiencing as well as the fact that the recent trend for the sun, over the past few years has been fewer and fewer sunspots! In past ages, the lack of sunspots has translated into cooler global temps!

Last fall, I called the Winter of 2013-14 pretty well: "Taking just those factors into consideration, (I've left out the Milanovitch Cycles for this discussion), I've come to feeling that this winter will be a little on the cold side, but still well within the historical averages. That said, (the fly in the ointment being CO2 and the anthropogenic climate forcing it causes), we may see some really weird winter storms this time around. Time will tell..." Click here for that forecast.

More to come....

Feel free to visit my Taney County Missouri weather site...

Was the July 2014 weather in the Midwest a bit unusual!

Not a single sunspot!

If you feel that this July has been a big odd, you'd be right. The month has been over three degrees cooler than normal, in addition t being on the dry side with just .41 inches of rain having fallen in my location near Forsyth Missouri in SW MO. Normally, this area would enjoy close to three and a half inches! (That's not to say that we won't catch up over the next two weeks that remain in the month)!

The sun has likewise been acting a little bit strange with July 17 being the first sun-spotless day in almost three years (the last time this happened was on August 14, 2011)! Sunspots have actually been harder to come by even though we are in the midst of the eleven year solar max!

So, what's this mean. Probably nothing. Although there are some, like myself, who feel that there is a trend here that when combined with lower than normal sunspots could portend a hard and colder than normal winter for the 2014-15 season!

Is the drought over? Will Bull Shoals flood?

Is the local area drought ending? Will River Run Park flood again? Two very good questions. As my readers may know, much of the south central and western states have been locked in a severe drought over the past couple of years. And, while Taney County in Missouri, where I reside, is nowhere near as bad as some parts of Texas and Oklahoma, concern is still evident by many.

However, rainfall over the past month of May and now early on in June, has been encouraging. We seem (and I use that word sparingly) to be transitioning into a wetter regime. Let's take a look at some recent rainfall figures for Forsyth and West Plains Missouri. See spreadsheet at right. The June figure was as of June the 4th. On the morning of the 5th, we received 1.01 inches here in Forsyth (no data yet for West Plains). This would bring our yearly total to 14.92 inches which would still put us 8.74 inches behind the average with the better part of a month yet to go to make up the difference! This graph which shows rainfall amounts versus the average through June clearly illustrates that the Forsyth are is on a

positive run! Even though we were lagging behind January through April, we jumped forward in May and even surpassed the average historical amounts to a good degree. Now, a we enter into the early stages of June, the forecast is for unsettled weather going into the second week! That a very good thing if it pans out.

Finally, a quick peak at Bull Shoals river levels as compared to 2011 when the entire River Run and Shadowrock Parks area were flooded all summer, you can see that while the levels are elevated, they would still have a ways to go to reach those levels!

 Having made those statements, I always feel it's better to have a little more water than not enough. If the parks flood, then they flood as after all, they are designated flood plains. The next thirty days will more than likely tell the tale as to how this summer is going to proceed!

Track the weather in Taney County Missouri in real time at www.taneyservices.com!

Disclaimer: Every effort is made by the author to insure the figure supplied in this post are accurate.  If and error was made, please contact him at Forsythkid@Gmail.com!

A run of warm and wet weather!

This graph of our highs and lows in 2014 as compared to last year tell a most interesting story. Contrary to climate change extremists or CCE's, we're pretty much normal for the month of May and now, even the drought we have been experiencing is moderating somewhat. Rainfall as of the 27^th was at 5.24 inches versus an average of 4.84 (West Plains data), and we still have four days to go with rain chances looking pretty good each day! Currently, the Forsyth Missouri area stands about seven inches behind for the year, but if present patterns persist into June, that deficit could be erased rather quickly!

May has been pretty much a real lamb...so far!

After hearing so many stories from the Liberals among us about how the climate is going berserk, it has been interesting to witness a relatively calm weather month, at least so far! Other than the tornadic outbreak that devastated parts of the South on the 8^th, it's been rather quiet. Temperatures (as of the 20^th) are running right at normal for my area with rainfall at about 2.96 inches or 61%.

Rain is really a good thing Calvin!

As a very young child, I wore a yellow slicker similar to Calvin's and can remember vividly standing in the rain waiting for a bus that always seemed to be late. Back then, I had to exit a warm bed on more occassions than I'd like to remember. Today, that isn't the case and on a rainy, overcast and cool day like today, it's a pleasure to stay under the covers!!

First week in May very dry! But, then....

Temps for Forsyth Missouri

It's not unusual for the month of May to be a little crazy weather-wise! The temperatures were colder than normal the first three days of the month before warming to higher than normal. They should moderate, however, as unsettled weather will be the norm over the next few days...
While no rain has fallen in the first seven days, that should come to an end by the 8^th. Everyone is looking for a copious or torrential event if things pan out the way the weather service thinks they might!

Looks like the cold of this past winter is over!

As May begins to settle in in earnest, the terrible cold of this last winter will begin to fade from memory. If memory serves me correctly, this was the 13^th coldest winter in the last 60 years for my home area down in southwest Missouri! That's a stat I'm in no hurry to repeat, either!

Now, we face a summer, fall where everyone may be curious as to what they will be like. Colder than normal, wet, a scorcher? Who knows, but it will be interesting for any weather watchers out there to see how the backside of a bad winter plays out. Then, at some point, we will all be face with the winter season of 2014-15. I'm guessing it will be one of three deals; warmish, average or cold as hell! Personally, I'm pushing for the warmish scenario. I will have no trouble, at all, with a 70 degree day or two in January!

Clumpiness or signs of global climate instability?

As a long time weather watcher, I've seen quite a bit of interesting climatic changes as the decades have gone by. Living, as I have, in southwestern Missouri, I've been exposed to all sorts of weather phenomena including; tornadoes, ice storms, ice thunder, flooding rains and prolonged droughts where everything around me dried up and then sometimes caught fire! The thing was, however, that during all that long period of time, it felt right! By that I mean that the ebb and flow of the seasons and even the occasional tumultuous storms and such were all in the range of 'average' or 'normal' as measured by thirty years historical standards! But, that's no longer true, sad to say.

Starting around 2012, I began to sense a change in the flow. That is to say, I perceived a sort of meteorological 'clumpiness' (my made up word) in the patterns of weather over time. A bunching together of patterns within patterns that persist for a while and then suddenly change directions. For example, first there was what I felt to be a general warming trend that went on for some years between 2009 and 2012 with generally mild winters and mild summers. Now, however, it feels as though some climatic switch has been thrown (maybe somewhere around early 2013) and things are seem to be getting strang(er); with colder, much colder in the winters and hotter, much hotter summers! Like I said, in a clumpy sort of way! And, if I'm right in this feeling, the coming summer of 2014 will be a real scorcher followed by a very severely cold winter of 2014-15! I hope I'm wrong in this prediction!

Note: You might wonder if I have data to back this assertion up. No, I don't! I just have a gut instinct which I've learned to trust over the years.Be sure and visit my weather page at www.taneyservices.com!

How about a nice late winter assault?

After what was a very promising trend in warming temperatures, my hopes of planting out some veggies has been thwarted by a late winter season blast from our friend to the north! The National Weather Service is calling for a mixed bag of most all the nasties that can be thrown at us including; severe storms, high winds, rain, sleet and frost as a strong front sweeps through the area overnight on Sunday, the 13^th of April! Note that the graph of temps has been replaced with one accurate through the 27th!

Fortunately, I don't have much planted outside and am thinking that some rainfall would not be all that bad as my area in southwestern Missouri is a number of inches behind the average!

Update: As is evidenced by the graph, things moderated quite a bit in the later parts of the month! Now, as we are approaching the last days of April, a minor cool down is forecast with highs at around 55F to 60F and lows in the upper thirties. This will be cold enough that I may have to cover some of the more tender vegetable starts that were planted out over the past week! Right at the 28th of the month, we are running about 2 degrees warmer than normal with three inches of rainfall.  

April and her roller coaster ride!

If I were going to compare the month of April to some other event in real life, I think it would be one of those carnivals that roll through small towns, such as mine, every summer. There's lots of ups and downs, flashing lights and strange happenings in both! No roller coaster ride ever made can match the way the weather can be near 80 degrees one moment and then feel like it's freezing the next! Up and down and all around, just like the rides at a good old fashioned carnival!

This year, April promises to be no exception with the month starting out in the mid 70's on the 2^nd and 3^rd, before tumbling back downwards again after throwing a lightening bolt or two our way! Oh, and there will be rain in the mix there somewhere too! Lots of rain, as about four inches will likely fall on our collective heads, at some point in the next thirty days.

The real beauty of April, though, is all the stuff that starts growing with such wild abandon – trees turn green, bushes flash yellow and daffodils spring up just about everywhere you look! There is simply no other month in the entire year that has this wild and crazy feel to it. Yep, it's spring alright!

Continued drought could mean higher produce prices!

The drought that’s currently gripping California which follows the state’s driest year on record, is likely to boost the prices of everything from broccoli to cauliflower nationwide. Farmers and truckers stand to lose billions in revenue, weakening an already fragile recovery in the nation’s most-populous state.

The fallout may be felt on grocery shelves throughout the country in the coming months as 'prices for produce like artichokes, celery, broccoli and cauliflower could rise at least 10 percent', this according to Milt McGiffen, a vegetable specialist at the University of California at Riverside. The state of California grows more than 80% of the nation’s supply of these crops.

Down here, in southwest Missouri, where I live near the small town  of Forsyth, we have also affected by drier than normal weather over the past several months.  According to historical records, we should have received something like ten and a quarter inches of rain by the end of March, when in point of fact we stand at just over four inches as of this post! And, while this is not as bad as the exceptional and long standing drought that is affecting the Central Valley in California, it still bears watching as we enter into the months of April and May when traditionally, heavier rainfall has occurred.

You can visit www.taneyservices.com for more live weather information for Taney County Missouri!

As March winds down, so does the cold!

Say bye bye baby!

As we are now closing in on the last few days of March 20143, get ready for some fast paced and changing times as spring kicks herself into full gear!

Before any of us can get a handle on what's going on, we'll start seeing the mercury climb a bit higher with each passing day! For me, living where I do in southwest Missouri, I can expect daytime highs of around 70 degrees with not so bad nights falling to the 40's! That's a weather recipe I can live with, especially considering the cold winter we've all just endured. Did you know, for instance, that March was about 4 degrees below the 30 year average? That his winter ranks up there as one of the coldest in living memory? That people, like myself, who suffer from SAD are about to climb the walls? Well, thankfully, better times are just ahead!

January and February temperature graphs

Both graphs represent actual temperature readings for Forsyth Missouri.

Fourteen degrees below average! Is it a trend?

March has turned a cold should to the residents of southwest Missouri with and average temperature that is 14 degrees below the thirty year average through the 8^th day of the month! Is that something we should worry about – no not really. However, since the first month of the year we have been -.3 (Jan), -4.8 (Feb) and now -14.3 degrees below the historical averages! If, (and this is a big if) we end up below average by the end of March, I'll begin to take much more notice!

My spring weather prediction for 2014!

Back in august of 2013, when I wrote about the then coming winter, and my predictions for the 2013-14 winter season I stated that 'That said, (the fly in the ointment being CO2 and the anthropogenic climate forcing it causes), we may see some really weird winter storms this time around. Time will tell...'. I think I nailed that it fairly well. This past winter season has been fairly cold, snowy and even a bit strange with the months of January and February seeing very little in the form of rain (only a total of 1.88 inches versus an average of 5.5”)!

So, what does my crystal ball reveal to me about the spring of 2014?

Look for the cycle of wild(ish) weather to continue with severe storms, tornadoes and flooding being more prevalent than they've been over the past several years. Also look for large swings in temperatures as incursions of cold air from Canada continue the trend we've seen over the recent winter season! It will be the clash of hot air and these cold Canadian maritime masses that will stir up trouble in the form of more super-cell storm development than is the average!

An interesting little winter storm!

All outdoor grilling has been canceled for today!

On March the 2nd, an 'interesting little winter storm' made it to my home located in southwest Missouri. What had been advertized as a potential freezing rain event, turned out to be just about all sleet. I put together a little bit video footage that give some idea of what thing looked like. it's on YouTube and was filmed in High Definition.

According the the National Weather Service, later on during the evening hours, my area can expect up to four inches of blowing and drifting snow that will go quite nicely on top of the sleet making travel somewhat problematic. Track the progress of this storm at www.taneyservices.com!

Hold on, I think I see a batch of snow heading our way right now! Or, golly...could that be more ice? Yep! Another helping of the frozen stuff...

March may enter with an ice storm in tow!

The mega computers that serve the National Weather Service have been really cranking as of late and the forecasts are not looking good as we get ready to enter the first weekend of Match 2014 down here in southwest Missouri!

It's becoming increasingly likely that ice, in some form, will impact the area around Taney County Missouri including the cities of Branson and Forsyth starting as early as Friday night, February the 28^th. And while there are more questions than answers as of this post, some of the climatic factors that favor an icing event will be on hand for the Saturday night through Sunday time frame.

The exact wording from the NWS follows:

"Comparison of the synoptic scale setup advertised by the global models to the climatology for ice storms across the Ozarks is worrisome. The CIPS (Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems) analogs continue to show a strong signal for ice accumulation across the Ozarks."

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
411 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2014

Right now, freezing rain, thunder sleet, wrap around snow and ice accumulations of greater than a quarter of an inch are all on the forecast table for the greater Ozarks area! A lot will depend on the exact track of the low pressure system as it swings across the area Saturday evening!

Everyone would be well advised to pay particular attention to any winter advisories or warnings that might be issued by the weather service over the next couple of days! Get any needed grocery shopping done by early Friday, have a plan for if the power goes out for an extended period of time and touch base with friends and the elderly to make sure they are informed and safe!

Back to back storm systems to impact area!

With March literally knocking on the door, a pair of storm systems are due impact the Forsyth Missouri area beginning on Friday, March the 28^th with another storm system coming in late on Saturday, March the 1^st!

Of the two system, the Saturday one will be the more potent of the two. Friday's system may end up being an all rain events for most everyone as a wide temperature gradient will set up across the region. Look for brisk winds and the possibility of some light snow or sleet developing depending on how fast everything sets up. This will be what the weather service likes to refer to as a 'quick hitter' that should be here and then gone rather quickly.

The second, and more potent system is due in our are on Saturday late afternoon to early evening. The NWS expects all of our region will be in the cold sector. Precipitation will then develop later on Saturday without question. However, it is the type of precipitation that is in question, at this time. Generally, we can generally expect to see a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow for much of the period that could extend through much of Sunday!

Cold pattern to persist through the end of February 2014!

As we get ready to enter the last week of February 2014, the National Weather Service is calling for cool conditions all across the Midwest, including Taney County Missouri, where I make my home. It seems those pesky Canadians have an over abundance of cold air and want to share that fact with us.

This pattern of a cold northwesterly flow has been with us for much of the winter season and it is hopeful that this pattern will change as we enter into March with the official start of Spring occurring on the 20 ^th of that month! As of this post, my area in southwest Missouri is still running about six degrees cooler than what is the historical average. This fact has translated into higher than normal heating cost for thousands, with everyone looking forward to a warm up in the near term!

on the 20

Rainfall totals have also been meager for the month with my location near Forsyth, MO recording only .76 of an inch of rain versus a 2.99 inch average. Chances for additional rainfall also appear to be slim to none for the balance of the month! See more weather updates at www.taneyservices.com!

With winter on the wane, I now have allergies to look forward to..

Advancing age brings with it a set of new challenges. My muscles atrophy and my joints ache whenever the weather outside changes even a little bit! But, now as winter is getting herself ready to exit stage right, along comes Ms. Spring with all her pollen laden tree friends and then the fun really begins!

In some years, there's even a 'magic point in time' where I find myself still aching from cold related weather events while also am fully involved with teary eyes and a running nose! That generally occurs in late March when we can still get cold snaps, but yet all the trees around me are also producing pollen like there's no tomorrow! (Living, at that point, becomes a challenge as I find I must stay indoors hugging an air purifier while taking aspirin for the pain)...

One great site that covers all things pollen, pretty well is Pollen.com. They have interactive maps that allow you to drill down to your particular area and to even see what the most prevalent pollen producers are. The graphic above was for this date in February. I was also informed that the culprit

for that date was the Juniper trees that adorn all the hillsides around where I live. On some special days when the air is still, you can see pollen rising from them in the form of a slightly reddish smoke! Oh joy! When those tiny particles make it into my nose, my body instantly assumes some alien invasion has occurred and throttles up my immune system to Condition Red! It's like getting an instant case of the flu! Wham bam thank you m'am! Maybe I'll get smart one of these days and move out to the desert where the only things to worry about will be rattlesnakes and scorpions...

Another 'dry' storm goes on by!

After much hoopla and hope, the latest storm system has left my home in southwest Missouri high and dry....yet again!

With just .76 of an inch of rain falling in the Forsyth Missouri area this month, we are now rapidly falling behind the statistical average. We should be at around 5.5 inches, year to date, and yet are currently sitting at just 1.84 inches! Hopefully, we will make this up in the coming months as more of an active weather pattern is expected.

In the cold department, I think everyone would agree that we've achieved our quota and then some! The mean temperature, this month is still 7.7 degree below normal and the coming week may add to that total as it is expected to be colder than normal for much of that time!

Will crazy weather prevail this spring?

After I read about U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's recent speech where he stated that 'climate change ranks among the world's most serious problems -- such as disease outbreaks, poverty, terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction', I was given pause. Perhaps the man is right! Perhaps our planet's climate has become so screwed up, it will begin to retaliate with monster storms, tornadoes of unheard of destructive power and hurricanes that will kill thousands every year! Wow! Talk about your basic end of the world kind of scenario!

The truth of the matter is that, yes, our climate is changing. It was changing 500 million years ago and it will be changing long after man has gone the way of the dodo bird. The real question is whether or not it's all mankind doing, and if so, what would be the cure?

I've stated, all along, that part of the problem this planet faces is a population problem. More concisely, it's an over population problem brought on by the mindless way in which we all duplicate ourselves with such wild abandon! (Seriously, don't ya think seven billion humans is enough for one measly ball of granite)? After all, we need to share this planet with other animals; fish, birds and all manner of microbes. Each of which has just as much right to a decent life as any human does. (Maybe they even have more of a right, as few to no other organisms (other than man), pollute and destroy the environment as well or as fast!

But, for the record, let's say that the climate is spiraling out of control for whatever reason. If that is true, we can expect thing's to get much more dicey in the near future. Just like an unbalanced top that wobbles more and more erratically, so too must the climate begin to go from one extreme form of weather to the next if the weather worriers are correct. In other words, there should be a clear and a persistent trend that any lay-bob person could look at and say, 'Hell yes, things are getting worst!"

So, let's all watch with analytical eyes as this spring, summer and fall unfold. If Kerry and his kind are correct, a good case will be then made to take corrective action - that being the culling of about half the world's population. After all, on a scale of this magnitude, that's about the only thing that would make any sense! And who knows, maybe we could work out a solution in the manner of that movie - Soylant Green! Bon appetite everyone!

Cold mornings in February will become a thing of the past!

The 14th saw a normal high and low for the first time in a while!

As we approach and the go by the mid point of the month of February, all these below freezing mornings we've been experiencing will decrease dramatically in number and severity. That's the hope at any rate! Current computer modeling see a very basic shift in the weather regime from arctic style cold to a much more moderate and normal state for this time of year. Look for temperatures to begin hitting the 60 degree mark with some irregularity and then not dropping much below freezing during the nights. 

In addition, the sun is currently in an active phase which means an increased risk of solar storms, some of which could adversely impact the earth!

STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Feb. 15th in response to three incoming CMEs (Corneal Mass Ejections). The first two, which left the sun on Feb. 11th, have probably merged in transit to form a single "cannibal CME" more potent than either of its constituents. The third CME, launched on Feb. 12th, is following close on their heels. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras.

My home-based Geiger counter which is displayed at www.taneyservice.com – see the Radiation tab – will hopefully record any increase in radiation levels over time. 

Please! Do no run amok!

After we all have been forced to endure lately, what has essentially been a deep freeze for weeks on end, it’s only natural for us to want to get outside in the fresh air! But, that doesn’t mean we can all run amok!

According to the weather service, this coming Sunday might see temperatures that will hover close to the mid 50 degree mark! When that happens and it's on a weekend, they caution it just might look a lot like a prison break as thousands who are suffering from ‘cabin fever’ make a run for the outdoors! They add that, 'mindless scampering, dashing about and cavorting will likely occur as the populace tries to burn off the effects of being cooped up for so long'! I know I'll be among that group!

Forecasters also caution everyone that, with winds shifting to a southwesterly direction, we might even get a brief whiff of spring and who knows what effect that will have? Having said that, they caution that winter ain't over by a long shot!

Will mid February see a turning point?

After the near record cold that began the month, February 2014 may turn the corner mid-month and show everyone her warmer side! The NWS is forecasting for better (and wetter) weather as we enter the halfway point of the month with temperatures approaching 60F possible! I think most everyone I know could live with that form of global warming especially after enduring temperatures in the first days that were as much as 25 degrees below average! Finally, the snow that has hung around for well over a week can melt, thereby ensuring a green spring yet to come!

What? You think it might be warming? Well, yet it just might!

Sacrebleu! You mean to tell me that the temperature will only fall to 20F overnight on Thursday! Well, actually it didn't really fall at all as is stayed at 20F for most of this day 7 in February 2014.

And, yo give myself some credit, I've sorta of gotten used to all that old snow hanging around, like last years flu. OK, sure it's getting a little bit dingy and ragged around the edges at this point, but hey so am I! In a carbon fouled world like ours, virgin snow just can't stay Lilly white for very long!

But, the weather she is improving is she not? After back to back near zero nights, we are looking to get a bit of a reprieve with readings in the upper 30's forecast for Saturday and Sunday – before they plunge right back down into cold oblivion come Monday...

Wow! Upper 30's! Sounds almost too warm to me. The truth be told, this cold wave is about over – by mid week next week we should be in the mid 40's and yes, that will feel pretty warm to most everyone.

Protect your crawlspace pipes from freezing with still air!

Vent are with Meade wireless thermometer

Earlier this winter, when the temperature outdoors plummeted to below zero, I had a water pipe briefly freeze up. When I got under the house in a crawlspace and inspected the area, I discovered that the cover had come off an outdoor vent and had allowed freezing air to blow across the affected pipe. Fortunately, for me, that pipe did not rupture and I was able to defrost it without any harm. The lesson I learned from this experience was; 1) make sure that the air is still or not moving in any of the crawlspaces by blocking vents and filling any gaps and 2) make sure to monitor those or similar areas whenever really cold weather threatens.

As a follow up to this, and on the eve of the next cold wave that hit on February the 6^th, I got under the house and made sure that the two vents located there were thoroughly blocked. At that time, I also installed a wireless thermometer that could be monitored from inside the house. That way I could keep an eye on what the ambient temperature down there was over the course of any really cold evening. Interestingly, even though it got down to only 5 above zero that evening, the temperature in the crawlspace never dropped below 43F! However, just to be on the safe side, I also set up a small space heater on an extension cord that could be turned on in cast things got too dicey!

Ice station Forsyth reporting!

'As it now appears to me that the arctic line has shifted down to include the Midwestern parts of America, I can only say that I do so embrace the cold crappy weather we've all been enduring in such a stoic manner!'

Overnight (Feb the 5^th), the mercury dipped to just 6 above zero down in much of southwest Missouri! That included the town of Forsyth Missouri where I make my home. (Still, balmy when compared to the likes of Peoria Illinois at 6 below or Bismark, North Dakota that flirted with 10 below)! I wonder what those folks heating costs will be this month?

Unfortunately, this litany of frigid weather is due to last for some time to come. According to a statement by the NWS, an arctic air mass has now become 'entrenched' over the central U.S. Entrenched! What is this, a war? Not only that, but they are also forecasting a 'series of disturbances' to impact our region over the coming week. Swell! I think the other word they like to banter about is 'active', as in it will be an active weather pattern for the balance of the first half of February 2014. What that basically translates to is water of the frozen variety occurring on Friday the 7^th and then again early next week. Visit www.taneyservices.com for more weather!

Ten facts about global climate change!

Step outside anytime over the next week or so anywhere in the Midwest and then tell me how warm and fuzzy you felt! The mere fact that the temperature only reach a daily high of 20F over the next week might give you a clue as how to respond. Just don't bother telling anything to the Global Warming crowd – they will shout back at you that, 'oh yes, periods of extreme cold can be expected – but don't you worry, it will get really warm again! And, we're totally serial about that!'

OK, that sure sounds sane to me. Not!

The problem is, if you took all the Global Warming left wing nuts and mushed them all together, you might just have enough mental material to build yourself a small anvil. Truth be told, the vast majority of these mental midgets don't have very much going for them in the way of a real education in the global climate sciences. Yet, they are the ones you see on TV trying to tell everyone (who will listen), what to do about climate control.

Well, I'm not listening and that's probably a good thing.

Here are 10 actual facts to ponder:

1. Climate has always changed, and it always will. The assumption that prior to the industrial revolution the Earth had a “stable” climate is simply wrong. The only sensible thing to do about climate change is to prepare for it.

2. Accurate temperature measurements made from weather balloons and satellites since the late 1950s show no atmospheric warming since 1958. In contrast, averaged ground-based thermometers record a warming of about 0.40 C over the same time period. Many scientists believe that the thermometer record is biased by the Urban Heat Island effect and other artifacts.

3. Despite the expenditure of more than US $50 billion dollars looking for it since 1990, no unambiguous anthropogenic (human) signal has been identified in the global temperature pattern.

4.Without the greenhouse effect, the average surface temperature on Earth would be -18 C rather than the equable +15 C that has nurtured the development of life.

Carbon dioxide is a minor greenhouse gas, responsible for ~26% (80 C) of the total greenhouse effect (33C), of which in turn at most 25% (~20C) can be attributed to carbon dioxide contributed by human activity. Water vapor, contributing at least 70% of the effect, is by far the most important atmospheric greenhouse gas.

5. On both annual (1 year) and geological (up to 100,000 year) time scales, changes in atmospheric temperature PRECEDE changes in CO2. Carbon dioxide therefore cannot be the primary forcing agent for temperature increase (though increasing CO2 does cause a small mild positive temperature feedback).

6. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has acted as the main scaremonger for the global warming lobby that led to the Kyoto Protocol. Fatally, the IPCC is a political, not scientific, body.

Hendrik Tennekes, a retired Director of Research at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, says that “the IPCC review process is fatally flawed” and that “the IPCC willfully ignores the paradigm shift created by the foremost meteorologist of the twentieth century, Edward Lorenz“.

7. The Kyoto Protocol will cost many trillions of dollars and exercises a significant impost those countries that signed it, but will deliver no significant cooling (less than .020 C by 2050, assuming that all commitments are met).

The Russian Academy of Sciences says that Kyoto has no scientific basis; Andre Illarianov, senior adviser to Russian president Putin, calls Kyoto-ism “one of the most aggressive, intrusive, destructive ideologies since the collapse of communism and fascism“. If Kyoto was a “first step” then it was in the same wrong direction as the later “Bali road map”.

8. Climate change is a non-linear (chaotic) process, some parts of which are only dimly or not at all understood. No deterministic computer model will ever be able to make an accurate prediction of climate 100 years into the future.

9. Not surprisingly, therefore, experts in computer modeling agree also that no current (or likely near-future) climate model is able to make accurate predictions of regional climate change.

10. The biggest untruth about human global warming is the assertion that nearly all scientists agree that it is occurring, and at a dangerous rate.

Some material in this post was copied from www.globalresearch.ca

Southwest Missouri is in a deep freeze and you will pay!

After all the hype that has been circulating concerning the winter storms – four of them at last count in February so far – what hasn't got much coverage is the persistent cold! From this date, on the 3^rd, to next Monday the 10^th we will be hanging out in below freezing air! Your electric meter will also be going Cha-Ching!

Never mind all the wild animals that will suffer as a result of such cold, think about back to back to back record heating bills and what that might do to the family budget!! Last year I was harping on an electric bill that hit a hundred plus dollars – this year it's been double that starting with December! While our President ponders the Keystone pipeline, energy prices in America are skyrocketing and guess what – things are about to get worst – much worst as food prices are progged to run up through the roof.

The best advice I have is for everyone to hunker down, endure the assaults of this winter and then come this fall, vote the Progressive Left into oblivion.

Winter storm Nika on Tuesday might miss Forsyth!

With a little tiny bit of luck, the widely publicized winter storm called Nika, due to impact the region on Tuesday, February the 4th may just miss the Branson-Forsyth MO area and track off to the north and west. The exact amounts and the geographic orientation of the heaviest snow and or of ice are uncertain and will depend on the track of the area of the central area of low pressure.

That said, it would be a good idea for everyone to take note of what is going on when they arise on

Tuesday morning. An even better bet would be to have a weather alert radio turned on to help you stay on top of events as they unfold. I use a Midland WR300 radio that can be purchased at Amazon for about $45.

Update: Well, this much publicized storm did do a number on northeast Missouri while down my way it amount to about two inches. On a positive note, the snow sure did look pretty. On a sour note, we now have to endure really cold 20'ish degree weather until Monday, Feb the 10th1