Snow a possibility for Dec 7-8!

Taney County, MO. - Sometime in the Friday, Dec 7 to Saturday, Dec 8 date ranges; a strong low pressure system is forecast to move through the southern and central Missouri region. Given the forecast temperatures for those days will be close to or below the freezing mark, any precipitation that falls on the north side will likely be in the form of snow.

As this forecast date was still some ways off, as of this post, computer models were in disagreement as to exactly where the north region was going to be. That said, it's a good idea to be weather aware as we approach the weekend!

Monster winter storm targets the Midwest!

Fictional Account: In what has now been termed the Storm of the Century, a number of factors came together to result in the stranding of tens of thousands of Missouri residents!

On the evening of December the 17^th, a low pressure system transited across the gulf states throwing up moisture laden air into the center of the United States. This air slammed into a arctic vortex that barreled down from northern Canada. Boasting temperatures in the low teens, the super chilled air travel quickly over a fresh snow pack that cover the northern tier of states. These two forces coming together, resulted in hurricane force winds that carried a mixture of sleet and snow. Before the dawn of the next day, snow amounts were in excess of 13 inches in some locales with eight foot drifts that closed many key arteries. Power outages were widespread.

In the southwest portion of the state, cities like Branson were also treated to a horrific ice storm that coated trees, bridges and power cables. Reports of downed power lines were so numerous, that a State of Emergency was announced by the Governor's Office. Thousands were without power and also could not travel due to treacherous road conditions as of Tuesday, December 18. The National Weather Service then announced the approach of an even larger system that was forecast to arrive over the weekend.

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While this piece was just a flight of fancy, such a storm could happen sometime in the future. Everyone, then, should take sensible steps to insure they have some of the following:

Have a Weather radio on hand that is turned on all the time.

Have enough food to last at least a week.

Have an auxiliary source of heat or generator.

Get a check up for your vehicle or vehicles. Be winter ready!

Have a get out of Dodge plan to move out of a severe winter storms path.

December week 1-7 temps!

The projected average temps for the first week of December show us starting out warmer than normal, but then quickly diving down into the 'average' territory of 35 degrees.  Next Friday and Saturday look to be the best of the bunch. Then beginning with Sunday Dec 7, things look to chill down a bit...

Storms and a cold front beginning Nov 30!

So, here's the latest word concerning an approaching storm system that will bring showers and isolated severe thunderstorms into the Taney County area Friday night (Nov 30) and into Saturday (Dec 1). At this time some areas may receive strong winds and damaging hail! (Still a bit too early to tell exactly what form of severity they might take).

The system is forecast to move through the Ozarks rather quickly exiting to the north and east of much of the region by Saturday afternoon. See the national radar loop by clicking here.

A return of cold air will occur behind the system as a cold front swings through the region as the system departs. By Sunday night into Monday morning, a batch of precipitation will move across the

area. With colder temperatures it will likely fall as snow Sunday night and change to rain or a mix during the day Monday before changing back to snow as the system exits the region Monday evening. No snow accumulations are expected at this time as snow amounts will be light.

The cold air will remain in place through most of next week with highs in the 30s each day. A slight warm up will occur by Thursday with highs in the lower 40s, but another potent storm system is on the horizon for the end of next week.

Winter 2018-19: My weather predictions!

Forsyth MO. - It's November the 28th and the overnight temperatures had dipped to around 25°F! And that sort of abnormally cold weather had been pretty much the norm since after the first week of the month! In looking at a chart that showed the last prior four average temperatures for November 2014-2017, I could see that this year was a significant departure from the normal average of 46 degrees! As a matter of fact, there were some days that seemed closer to what we'd get on a typical January! So, what does that mean?

 In all probability, it doesn't mean all that much when taken by itself. And yet, the Central northern states had already experienced its first true blizzard of he season, and it's not even going to be 'winter' until December the 21st!  The picture taken below was in the city of Chicago, a location that was hit with over eight inches!


As a matter of fact, much of the northern tier of states have seen some significant snowfalls with temps this morning in the teens over much of that region. (Historically, when you see an early snow pack, the winter in Missouri can be more severe as any cold fronts that slide down over the snow covered ground will not gain as much heat as that air might normally gain). That's not always the case, so we need to watch to see if the trend for colder than normal temps will continue. That said, the temperature forecasts for the for the first week if that month are not very encouraging! www.taneyweather.com

Ten day temp averages for late November and early Dec!

Forsyth Mo. - Looking at the average temps may seem a bit strange as most of us want to see what the daily high and lows will be. I like to think in terms of the average temp for the day as an indicator of where we are in terms of 'normal' historical temps. Historical, in this case, being the 30 year average for whatever month we find ourselves in. For any given November, that temperature in southwest Missouri would be about 46 degrees. (That translates to something like a hi and low of 57°F and 35°F).  That said, the chart for the last of November and the first part of December shows a continued trend of below normal temps. Tuesday, December 4, is looking particularly cold.

Looking back at the last five Novembers! Why this one was strange!

So, November has turned out to be the oddball in the mix of the last five Novembers in Forsyth MO! I came to that conclusion after taking the averages of each average day from 2014 to 2017 and then plotting that against 2018.

Even a casual glance shows a rather large deviation (-4 below average) of the daily average temperatures for this year. Why is that even significant. Well for one thing, it could an indicator of a change in the types of winter we've all grown used to... or not. What was for sure, as of November 26, was that while temps had stayed right at about normal for a long stretch of time, that something had changed. Now, whether that change really means anything is the fly in the weather ointment? Still, it'll be interesting to see what happens in December!