Another Sunday and another cold front?

Forsyth MO. - A dry slot will spread into much of the area today, besides the far northern portions of the forecast area. This dry slot will result in the lose of cloud and result in more of the way of drizzle developing mainly south of Highway 54. With temperatures falling through the day, a brief period of freezing drizzle will be possible and could result in a glazing of icing on elevated surfaces this afternoon into this evening mainly north of Highway 60. With temperatures currently quite warm early this morning, ground temperatures will also start off on the warm side. The onset of any wintry precipitation should generally melt, with any accumulations associated with bands of heavier snow. As temperatures fall into the 20s on gusty northwesterly winds later today, ground temperatures will fall this afternoon and evening and could result in wet roads freezing in spots and snow starting to accumulate, mainly along and north of Highway 54 where more snow is expected. The gusty winds will also reduce visibilities within any snow. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued generally along and north of Highway 54 where more snow is expected  https://taneyservices.net/

Storm system on Sunday to usher in below normal temps!

 Well, it is getting to be late in the fall season with December lurking just around the corner. So bundle up buttercups...

Forecast: A rather active upper level pattern brings us yet another seasonable mild day for Saturday before another digging trough over the plains brings the next system into the Ozarks Sunday. Models have begun to find agreement on the track of the system with the low center tracking generally along and north of the I-70 corridor across northern Missouri. This will keep the bulk of the precipitation and any potential for accumulating snow on the back side of the system confined to the northern most parts of the Ozarks across central Missouri.

The primary impact with this system may become the very windy conditions expected as a tight surface gradient develops. Winds will likely gust from 30 to 40 mph at times during the day Sunday.

 Behind the system Sunday, temperatures once again drop with lows Monday morning in the 20's.

The remainder of the week, while dry, will remain on the below normal side of the temperature scale for this time of the year with highs some 10 to 15 degrees below normal in the 30's and 40's through the remainder of the week. Overnight lows will also be about 10 degrees below normal.

I noted that some weather forecasters were painting a more snowy pattern for the Sunday-Monday time frame. Should such an event occur, the snow pack would all but insure colder temps as we moved into December.
 
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First half of Nov 2018 five degrees below normal!

Forsyth MO. - I watched with a little bit of concern, the manner in which the temperatures sort of fell off the cliff over the first fifteen days in November! After experiencing a few past years that saw very warm temps, as high as seven degrees ABOVE the normal average, I had concluded that the Global Warming bull shit might have something going for it. But, no! the mercury began the month in fine fashion and then dropped like a brick! (I even saw a few days that were more reminiscent of late December)!

That all said, we seemed to be heading back to near normal conditions for the second half of the month!

Average temperatures drop in first half of November 2018!

After experience a very typical October, here in southwest Missouri, the temperatures had taken a definite downwards curve in the first half of November 2018! www.taneyweather.com

November 2018. Some initial thoughts!

After a pretty typical October month had come and gone, November entered in rainy and cold fashion with temps barely hitting the 50 degree mark for a high. Thus, as we enter into mid fall, I was left wondering how the coming winter (starting on Fri, Dec 21) was going to go...

Mid October 2018 average temperature trend continues!

When it comes to the winter weather forecast for the 2018-2019 season, the NOAA has reported that there is a 70% chance that we will have an El Niño winter season, meaning early predictions call for a warmer than average winter across the United States. Well, that the official forecast at this point in time!

Mid October averages to steer more towards normal!

Using nothing less than state of the art graphics, I put together a mid October sort of forecast for what I think will be the average temps across southwest Missouri. For this model, I colored in zones of hot, nice, cool, cold and frigid average temps. (I feel that the average temperature for any given day gives one the feel of that day). And, as can be seen, we are in for a more 'normal' weather period than what we experienced in 2017, at least for the mid portion of the month. As the the normal average works out to be 57 degrees (Hi 70 Lo 44), we will  likely be running just a bit below that figure, through about the 22nd of the month.