June week 2ish weather for Taney County!

MONDAY

Monday will be even warmer as 850mb temps rise to 20C. Most locations along and north of I-44 will reach 90 with a few low 90s possible. With 700mb temps between 10-14C, it will be hard to get

precip, none the less clouds. The exception will be across far south central Missouri (Oregon county) where an isolated shower or storm is possible since the cap will be a tad weaker there.

TUESDAY

A strong upper level trough will move into the Northern Plains Tuesday with a trailing front into Kansas and Oklahoma. Areas across the eastern Ozarks may see an afternoon shower or storm however confidence is not high in this given warm mid level temps and little forcing available. With 850mb temps around 20-21C, expect highs around 90 again. Showers and storms will fire in KS and OK Tues evening as shortwave energy approaches. Most or all of this activity will stay west of the area given increasing convective inhibition during the Overnight hours.

WEDNESDAY

Frontal boundary pushes closer Wednesday afternoon and this may be our best shot at showers and storms given that the air mass will likely be pretty unstable. Wind shear looks less than 30kts however instability will be high therefore will need to monitor for stronger storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday also looks warm with highs around either side of 90.

THURSDAY

Frontal boundary then looks to become diffuse or go stationary across the area from Thursday into the early part of the weekend. A zonal mid level pattern will exist during this time. This signal would suggest several chances for showers and storms during this time frame. Otherwise temps look to remain in the mid to upper 80s.

Heat index values this week will likely reach the middle to potentially upper 90s across portions of the area with the areas north and west of Interstate 44 into the Osage Plains favored. While this is not uncommon by any means, it will be the warmest it has "felt" so far this calendar year.

Taney County work week 2 - warmth to continue!

I don't want to appear that I'm complaining, but hey, it is November! Seems to me like we're stuck in spring! That said, Sunday and most of Monday look to be generally pleasant. South winds will be increasing by Monday as a surface high pushes off to the east. Enough moisture should return to western portions of the region to result in renewed shower chances by Monday night, though the bulk of that activity still looks to remain just to our west.

A passing shortwave will then push a front through the area Tuesday, though mediocre moisture and less-than-ideal upper level structure/support will limit PoPs with this feature.

From Wednesday onward, upper level ridging will remain centered over the Central Plains through at least the end of day 7, with a series of shortwave expected to dig across New England and the Mid

Atlantic. This upper level pattern would likely continually reinforce surface high pressure across the region, suggesting dry conditions and temperatures at or above average. And, since 60F is about average....

Morning lows on Thursday will be a bit of a concern as many of us will drop into the middle 30's. This may be enough to produce widespread frost, especially across our eastern counties. A slight moderation in temperatures is expected before a dry cold front pushes through by early this weekend. Again, as mentioned, the coldest temperatures will be east of our region, however, more frost may be possible for at the very least the eastern Ozarks this weekend.

Coming up mid next week!  There is fairly good agreement with large scale features early/mid next week. The upper pattern will open up and become more progressive but it will still be fairly high amplitude. A strong storm will move into the U.S. West Coast by Wed (Nov 16) with a downstream upper ridge building into our area Tue-Wed with warm temperatures. As low pressure moves out into the High Plains Thu, south to SSW winds will increase. Deep moisture return ahead of the system is questionable at this point so we are not carrying rain/tstm chances for Thu. There is still some spread in the GFS ensembles in timing and location of the upper system. Bears some watching but the frontal passage for us looks to be just after this forecast period. www.taneyservices.com