I don't want to appear that I'm
complaining, but hey, it is November! Seems to me like we're stuck in spring! That said, Sunday and most of
Monday look to be generally pleasant. South winds will be increasing
by Monday as a surface high pushes off to the east. Enough moisture
should return to western portions of the region to result in renewed
shower chances by Monday night, though the bulk of that activity
still looks to remain just to our west.
A passing shortwave will then push a
front through the area Tuesday, though mediocre moisture and
less-than-ideal upper level structure/support will limit PoPs with
this feature.
From Wednesday onward, upper level
ridging will remain centered over the Central Plains through at least
the end of day 7, with a series of shortwave expected to dig across
New England and the Mid
Atlantic. This upper level pattern
would likely continually reinforce surface high pressure across the
region, suggesting dry conditions and temperatures at or above
average. And, since 60F is about average....
Morning lows on Thursday will be a bit
of a concern as many of us will drop into the middle 30's. This may be
enough to produce widespread frost, especially across our eastern
counties. A slight moderation in temperatures is expected
before a dry cold front pushes through by early this weekend. Again,
as mentioned, the coldest temperatures will be east of our region,
however, more frost may be possible for at the very least the eastern
Ozarks this weekend.
Coming up mid next week! There is fairly good agreement with
large scale features early/mid next week. The upper pattern will open
up and become more progressive but it will still be fairly high
amplitude. A strong storm will move into the U.S. West Coast
by Wed (Nov 16) with a downstream upper ridge building into our area Tue-Wed
with warm temperatures. As low pressure moves out into the High
Plains Thu, south to SSW winds will increase. Deep moisture return
ahead of the system is questionable at this point so we are not
carrying rain/tstm chances for Thu. There is still some spread in the
GFS ensembles in timing and location of the upper system. Bears some
watching but the frontal passage for us looks to be just after this
forecast period. www.taneyservices.com
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