MONDAY
Monday will be even warmer as 850mb
temps rise to 20C. Most locations along and north of I-44 will reach
90 with a few low 90s possible. With 700mb temps between 10-14C, it
will be hard to get
precip, none the less clouds. The
exception will be across far south central Missouri (Oregon county)
where an isolated shower or storm is possible since the cap will be a
tad weaker there.
TUESDAY
A strong upper level trough will move
into the Northern Plains Tuesday with a trailing front into Kansas
and Oklahoma. Areas across the eastern Ozarks may see an afternoon
shower or storm however confidence is not high in this given warm mid
level temps and little forcing available. With 850mb temps around
20-21C, expect highs around 90 again. Showers and storms will fire in
KS and OK Tues evening as shortwave energy approaches. Most or all of
this activity will stay west of the area given increasing convective
inhibition during the Overnight hours.
WEDNESDAY
Frontal boundary pushes closer
Wednesday afternoon and this may be our best shot at showers and
storms given that the air mass will likely be pretty unstable. Wind
shear looks less than 30kts however instability will be high
therefore will need to monitor for stronger storms Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Wednesday also looks warm with highs around
either side of 90.
THURSDAY
Frontal boundary then looks to become
diffuse or go stationary across the area from Thursday into the early
part of the weekend. A zonal mid level pattern will exist during this
time. This signal would suggest several chances for showers and
storms during this time frame. Otherwise temps look to remain in the
mid to upper 80s.
Heat index values this week will likely
reach the middle to potentially upper 90s across portions of the area
with the areas north and west of Interstate 44 into the Osage Plains
favored. While this is not uncommon by any means, it will be the
warmest it has "felt" so far this calendar year.
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