MONDAY
Low level moisture will continue to
slowly increase through midweek as those southeasterly winds persist.
The best moisture advection will actually occur across the southern
and then central Plains as a surface ridge axis remains planted
across the southeastern United States.
Meanwhile, a northeast to southwest
oriented frontal boundary will become established from the western
Great Lakes into the Corn Belt and then southern Plains from Monday
night into Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms should
develop to our northwest along that front and in closer vicinity to
short wave energy tracking northeast within the southwesterly flow
aloft. [Yawn...]
TUESDAY
Models all have showers/thunder
breaking out across the area this morning. PW values will
significantly increase across the forecast area today with most
locations rising to around 1.6 to 1.9 in. The cloudy skies and
scattered showers/storms will hold down warming today into the mid
70's to around 80. Upper level energy over the northern plains will
shift east along the U.S. Canada border
tonight and will help to flatten out
the ridge in the eastern U.S. This will help to set up the best
moisture axis in a southwest to northeast fashion with the highest PW
values setting up over our
northwestern CWA. The best chances of
rain will be over our northwestern CWA tonight. Lows tonight will be
quite mild in the low to mid 60's. [Me picking up some
interest]...
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY
The large scale pattern then becomes
somewhat interesting as we head into the Wednesday through Thursday
night time frame. Models are in good agreement that we will see a
confluent mid and
upper level flow develop from the
northern and central Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
This will be supportive of that front leaning over and becoming west
to east oriented somewhere
across the central Plains and
Mid-Mississippi Valley. This setup can be a heavy rain
producer. We will keep close tabs on this potential. The good news is
that we need the rainfall. Thus, we could stand to pick up a few
inches (or even more) without any worries of excessive runoff.
FRIDAY....
Global models then become divergent as
we get into late this week. There is some loose consensus that the
convergent flow will break down and an upper level trough will eject
out of the western United States. However, impacts on sensible
weather are a tough call out that far.
In term of temperatures, we will see a
downward trend throughout the work week as clouds and precipitation
become bigger players. The eventual position of that front will also
come into play from
mid to late week.
SATURDAY
Widespread light rainfall over the entire area during the day, but by Saturday evening, all precipitation
will have shifted east of the Ozarks, bringing a very pleasant
evening for the region. Look for Saturday night lows to fall into the
low to mid 50's.
SUNDAY
Southwest flow aloft quickly
re-establishes itself on Sunday bringing surface temperatures back
into the 80s. Dew points in the 50's and low 60's will make conditions
feel less humid than what we've experienced over the past couple
weeks. See more at
www.taneyweather.com!
Another dry cold will arrive early
Monday morning and pass through without much fanfare. There will be
an increase in mid level clouds with the front and temperatures will
be knocked down a few degrees again on Monday. A couple of the models
indicate a couple sprinkles possible behind the front Monday
afternoon but we have don't any mention of measurable rainfall in the
forecast.
