MONDAY, FEB 27
After enduring a rather cold and below normal weekend,a refreshing change brought on by persistent south winds Monday will
bring up more abundant warmth and moisture with a continued chance for light
rain at times. Rising mid level heights ahead of trough digging into
into the southwest U.S. will limit instability, so we are just
expecting overall light precipitation amounts. Then, it gets better!
TUESDAY, FEB 28
At this juncture, there appear to be
three potential initiation points for severe thunderstorms from this
afternoon into tonight. A Tornado Watch was issued at 2:23 PM
CST Tuesday. This watch, for Taney County and other nearby counties
will be in effect until 9PM tonight:
1. There may be a window for
strong/severe convection across the eastern half of the CWA by
mid-afternoon as convective temperatures are reached and convection
is perhaps aided by a bit of lift from the low level jet. This is by
far the most uncertain scenario, but if it should come to fruition,
any convection that develops would likely become super cellular very
quickly, with some potential for significant severe given more than
sufficient CAPE and shear.
2. By early to mid evening, supercells
may develop across eastern/northeastern Oklahoma and/or northwest
Arkansas and move northeast into the CWA. This scenario has a bit of
support from various short term, high resolution model guidance,
though is far from certain. Given that supercells would be the
preferred mode, large hail, winds, and tornadoes would all be
possible with this activity.
3. The highest confidence opportunity
is with the cold front itself, which should sweep across the region
from late evening into the overnight hours. A line of strong/severe
convection seems probable along this front, though a few breaks in
the line are certainly possible. High winds would be the most likely
hazard with this line, though a few QLCS-type tornadoes are possible
with any east-northeast surges given 0-3 KM shear vectors pushing 40+
knots.
WED ON THRU SATURDAY
The aforementioned system will move off to the east
Wednesday leaving a zonal flow aloft in its wake. After seasonably
cool temperatures persist on Wednesday warm conditions will return for the later
part of the week. Dry and increasingly breezing
conditions will result in elevated fire weather conditions late in
the week. www.taneyservices.com
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