Color Taney County work week three warm! At least for the start!

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY

We must all remember that this is still February! That said, it will stay warm even as an upper level trough and associated Pacific front will push eastward across the region on Monday. A band of scattered to numerous showers will spread across the Ozarks region from west to east. Computer models continue to depict modest instability which will support isolated thunderstorms. While most areas will receive modest rainfall amounts, that will not put much of a dent in the current dry spell. Still it's a start!

Rising 500 MB heights and a more zonal pattern will follow the passage of the upper level trough. This will keep the warm weather pattern going through mid week. And OK, we can all live with that! Highs Tuesday, Wednesday Thursday will rise into the 70's. So, everyone, get out your shorts and show off those white legs!

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY

The unseasonably warm weather, we've all be enjoying, will continue through mid week as a zonal pattern evolves. Southerly winds will resume Wednesday and increase on Thursday as surface low pressure develops over the Plains. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will climb into the middle and upper 70's. Elevated fire weather conditions will develop in some areas Wednesday as temperatures warm and the air mass remains dry.

THAT OTHER WX SHOE DROPS ON FRIDAY

The surface low pressure system will strengthen as it tracks into northern Missouri on Friday and a broad upper level trough transitions eastward from the western U.S. An associated cold front will push across the region on Friday. At this time a mostly dry frontal passage is expected as the deeper moisture remains to our east. Resulting increase in surface winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions especially Friday.

DA WEEKEND

A colder weather pattern with temperatures more typical of late February can be expected next weekend into early next week. Chances of precipitation could return late next weekend into next Monday but the details remain uncertain at this time as confidence in model solutions remains low at this time. Well, it was good while it lasted...

Several models are signaling some light precipitation late Sunday morning across east central Kansas and west central Missouri. This is in response to an approaching upper level disturbance. The 00z or 6AM CST computer models do not suggest any QPF (which stands for the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. A spatial and temporal precipitation forecast that will predict the potential amount of future precipitation for a specified region, or area), throwing any uncertainty into Sunday's precipitation forecast.

With the lower tropopause in place, (the interface between the troposphere and the stratosphere) that should result in a dry Sunday morning, we think that if precipitation does occur, it will hold off until mid day at least. (This would cause precipitation to be rain as opposed to snow). Therefore we have all rain chances going and leave the snow out of the picture at this time.  www.taneyservices.com