The first work week of March 2017 for Taney County!

MONDAY and TUESDAY

Not unlike the severe weather event last week, there will be two distinct opportunities for severe weather this evening/tonight. The first will be with any discrete super cells that are able to form ahead of the frontal boundary during the early to mid evening hours. These would likely have the greatest severe weather potential should they form. The second wave of severe weather will be with the front itself, with initial super cells (likely just north and west of the county wide area) congealing into a linear complex/QLCS as the front advances to the southeast. Straight line winds, large hail, and brief meso-vortex tornadoes will all be possible with this line. Having said that, this front will likely be quick mover and should clear our region by midday Tuesday. Thereafter, dry conditions can be anticipated as a dry northwesterly flow aloft sets up over the region. Has anyone fallen asleep yet?

WEDNESDAY

And yes, about that northwesterly flow of air. That will mean a somewhat cooler air mass will again filter into the region late Tuesday and into Wednesday (but, nothing abnormally cool). This cool down looks to be short lived as the surface high swiftly pushes east of our region by Thursday. Wait for it! As heights begin to gradually rise and a return flow sets up, a wonderful warming trend appears likely for the end of next week. I've got my shorts and suntan lotion already laid out!

THURSDAY - FRIDAY

The timing for potential severe weather on Thursday will be from mid to late afternoon into the early evening, with large hail the primary risk and a secondary thunderstorm wind risk.

Drier air should quickly move in behind the front with little to no precipitation occurring after 9 PM CST. Clearing should take place overnight with lows dipping back down into the 30's for most locations.

SATURDAY

Computer models indicate bands of robust precipitation and QPF develop late Saturday morning into the afternoon across much of the area. The northeastern two thirds of the area will likely see snow with a rain and snow mix across the southwestern one third of the area or basically from a Pittsburg Kansas to Branson line southward. Short term model guidance and forecast soundings suggest that the snow bands produce occasional moderate to locally heavy burst of snow at times across the Missouri Ozarks during Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will likely be hovering around freezing or slight above. With recent warm weather and ground temperatures as well as a high March sun angle, it will be very hard for snow to stick to roads. Most accumulation will be confined to grassy areas and elevated objects. One to two inches will be possible under heavier snow bursts. At this time, we do not think travel will be impacted.

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