October 2019 was pretty near normal!

Forsyth MO. - Even as I did not wait for the 31st reading, the trend line for the month showing a drop of 21°F was pretty much set in stone. That line was pretty close to the 70/44 spread that is the 30 year historical average for neighboring West Plains. My area showed a 69/49 spread which also reflected the typically higher reading seen during the nighttime hours.

Things could become a bit dicy toards the end of Nov 2019!

NWS, Springfield MO - An upper level trough will start to move east across the central Plains on Wednesday then through the area on Thursday. Lift will continue to occur ahead of the system resulting in periods of rain occurring across the area at times on Wednesday. The warm nose will remain in place through the day on Wednesday as temperatures remain above freezing. Highs will top out in the upper 30's to the upper 40's across the area Wednesday with the warmest readings across south central Missouri.

As the upper level trough starts to move into the area, surface temperatures will start to drop from northwest to southeast Wednesday evening and night. A dry slot will move into the area associated with the upper level trough. Drizzle will occur across the area as the dry slot will limit cloud ice. Temperatures will drop to or just below the freezing mark as lift and low level moisture remain in place Wednesday evening and night. This will result in a window for some freezing drizzle to occur mainly across the northern and western parts of the forecast area. Ground temperatures are still warm so not expecting a lot of impacts, but a light glaze of ice could be possible on elevated surfaces so take care when crossing bridges. As the upper level trough moves through the area mid level moisture will wrap into the area as mid level temperatures cool. This will allow for some light snow to occur late Wednesday night into Thursday before the precipitation comes to an end from west to east on Thursday. Minor if any accumulations and no real impacts are expected.

Widespread rainfall will occur across the area with generally 1 to 1 1/2" of rainfall expected for the entire event. Portions of south central Missouri may see closer to 2". Rates are not expected to be overly heavy at any given time, but widespread to moderate rainfall will occur for an extended period starting late this afternoon into Wednesday night. This may lead to the potential for some localized minor flooding as this widespread rainfall occurs.

Behind the system surface high pressure and a colder air mass will move over the area. Lows in the mid to upper 20's are expected Wednesday night with highs only warming into the 30's on Thursday. Lows Thursday night into Friday will drop into the low to middle 20's. Temperatures will then warm back into the 40's and 50's for highs Friday into the weekend.

Four months of weather. Page 4.

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Four months of weather. Page 3.

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Four months of weather. Page 2.

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Four months of Weather. Page 1.

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Snow in October

Forsyth MO. - It was late October, but I sort of felt that was a tad early for the National Weather Service to be talking about the chances for snow;

Staggering differences in model solutions remain during the
Tuesday through Friday time frame, but all global models indicate a
strong surge of cold air between Wednesday and Thursday. Thus,
that will be the message of the forecast; and not the potential
for measurable snow. The GFS remains the most progressive with
the upper-level shortwave and the surge of cold air, as a
TROWAL/deformation axis develops over central Missouri
Wednesday/Thursday with banded measurable snow. On the other hand,
the CMC and ECMWF offer much slower solutions with the upper-
level pattern, suggesting a warm and rainy Wednesday/Thursday.
These latter models then bring the cold air in Thursday/Friday
with a prevalent dry slot, thus, limiting snow chances.

For now, we have gone with our model blend for temperatures and
precip type from Tuesday to Friday. Temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday will exhibit highs in the 40s and lows in the 30's.
Then, Thursday and Friday will feature highs in the 40's and lows
in the 20s. Right now, we aren't mentioning more than a 0.5" of
snow across our area for next week.

Whatever does happen, it looks like many of us, living in Taney County Missouri, will be getting a does of some winter like temperatures. A trend that looks to continue right on into early November....

Here's the forecast map for Monday,  Oct 28 - That don't look very good to me...

Going into the fall and winter of 2019-20!

Forsyth MO. - After the rather wet and hot summer of 2019, all eyes turned to expectations of what kind of winter we might have and then going forward into the sprint of 2020, whether or the not the area parks would flood once again!

At right is a pic of the last five years of rain I've recorded for the Forsyth Missouri area. The C4 column is an average of the last four years not counting this year. One interesting note was the fact that those four years were statistically behind the 30 year posted averages for West Plains, MO. This year was looking to come in about normal, although it remained to be seen if that would come true.

As far as the Winter months for 2019-20 were forecast, the thinking was for a possibly colder and dryer than normal December through February period for the state of Missouri. See https://youtu.be/VGZJ8tSFLDs for a full video forecast. All indications, then, were that both Shadowrock and River Run parks would remain high and dry.... OK. I can live with that!