Saturday, October 26, 2019

Snow in October

Forsyth MO. - It was late October, but I sort of felt that was a tad early for the National Weather Service to be talking about the chances for snow;

Staggering differences in model solutions remain during the
Tuesday through Friday time frame, but all global models indicate a
strong surge of cold air between Wednesday and Thursday. Thus,
that will be the message of the forecast; and not the potential
for measurable snow. The GFS remains the most progressive with
the upper-level shortwave and the surge of cold air, as a
TROWAL/deformation axis develops over central Missouri
Wednesday/Thursday with banded measurable snow. On the other hand,
the CMC and ECMWF offer much slower solutions with the upper-
level pattern, suggesting a warm and rainy Wednesday/Thursday.
These latter models then bring the cold air in Thursday/Friday
with a prevalent dry slot, thus, limiting snow chances.

For now, we have gone with our model blend for temperatures and
precip type from Tuesday to Friday. Temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday will exhibit highs in the 40s and lows in the 30's.
Then, Thursday and Friday will feature highs in the 40's and lows
in the 20s. Right now, we aren't mentioning more than a 0.5" of
snow across our area for next week.
 
Whatever does happen, it looks like many of us, living in Taney County Missouri, will be getting a does of some winter like temperatures. A trend that looks to continue right on into early November....

Here's the forecast map for Monday,  Oct 28 - That don't look very good to me...


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