MONDAY
Light southerly winds and some passing
cirrus were keeping temps in the low 40's east to the low 50's west for Monday early. A developing surface low pressure across Arkansas will then move slowly east as the day progresses. This combined with
rising heights/thicknesses and a tightening pressure gradient across
the plains will result in a very warm and windy day today across the
Taney County area. We went a few degrees higher than guidance for highs given latest
performance of overachieving highs during these southwest wind setups. Also, computers models have handled expected
dew points poorly lately, especially during peak afternoon mixing and
have followed alternative thinking for today which promotes a slower moisture return. This dry air will bode potentially ill winds, as a result...
The warm and windy conditions will only
exacerbate the fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning will be
issued for portions of the area on Monday. Southerly winds will also help to keep temps up tonight ahead of a cold front
moving south into Kansas/Nebraska and Iowa. Fun times!
TUESDAY
A weather front is forecast to dig into the Rockies
on Tuesday with an associated cold front moving through in the evening as low
pressure develops across Oklahoma. This system, while compact, will
not have much moisture or instability with it and rainfall amounts
will be rather light on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves through.
Models move this system through rather slowly and eventually a wave
to our north will kick it along Wednesday night along with a stronger
cold front.
WEDNESDAY
After the balmy temperatures of the
last few days, cooler temperatures are on tap for Wednesday with
highs expected to be in the upper 50's to perhaps lower 60's. These
temperatures out there are still a solid 10-15 degrees above normal.
So, we can't complain too much!
Lingering light rain showers may then
hold on across the eastern Ozarks Wednesday night and perhaps
Thursday morning as another short wave trough quickly moves into the
region behind the departing closed upper level low. Otherwise, dry
weather will return to the area for the remainder of the week.
Temperatures through Saturday will remain above normal with highs in
the upper 5'0s to lower 60's and lows in generally in the 30's.
AHEM....
Global models then continue to indicate
a large scale pattern change as we get into next week. However,
significant differences remain in the synoptic scale regarding timing
and placement of
troughs. The good news is that
regardless of any particular model solution, we should stand
increasing chances for precipitation starting early next week as a
southwesterly flow aloft develops and Gulf of Mexico moisture returns
north.
Looking ahead, five wave charts
indicate a long wave pattern which would then support a deepening
trough over eastern North America with a signal for cross-polar flow.
If this pans out, much colder temperatures may be on the way as we
get towards the end of next week. See the Climate section below for
more detailed information.
LOOKING AHEAD
By Sunday, an upper level trough will
develop across the western U.S. with a sharp upper level ridge
building along the West Coast into southwest Canada. A strong cold
front will start sliding
southward across the Central Plains and
move into our region Monday night. Ahead of the front on Monday,
winds will be breezy 15 to 20 mph. Models indicate a good chance of
widespread light rainfall Monday night into Tuesday across the area
with QPF amounts around a quarter of an inch. There may be just
enough elevated instability for some rumbles of thunder but no severe
weather is
expected.
A large and deep trough develops and
digs across the Great Lakes Region into the Midwest Region by the
middle of next week. All medium and long range guidance indicates a
much colder weather pattern will likely develop with below
normal temperatures for the middle and end of next week.
