MONDAY
A warm up? Light winds early will give
way to southwest winds by early afternoon with a nice warm up ahead
of an approaching surface front. MOS guidance has temperatures at or
just above 60 deg F over the the Taney County forecast area. This
actually might be a tad cool in a southwesterly surface flow regime.
Potential weather impacts are fire weather related with warm/dry
conditions and moderate wind gusts in the afternoon. Doesn't look
like warning conditions, but elevated concerns are still warranted.
TUESDAY
The front will slow and maybe stall
briefly for a time over or near our area. In any case, a dry air mass
will be in place and we are not expecting any precipitation. It
should be warmer than normal and dry with fairly light winds. Ergo,
our mini-drought stricken condition is likely to continue..
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY
The surface front over our area Tue
into Wed will finally start to get pushed south as a Canadian surface
ridge noses into our area. The ECMWF and Canadian guidance continue
to push the surface high center into Neb/IA/northern MO by Fri. The
GFS keeps the surface high center farther north and allows some
moisture to advect northward into the region Thu. So, or now, we will
go closer to the drier solutions during this time. Forecast
confidence starts to lower as guidance has trouble zeroing in on
individual systems in the zonal flow.
WEEKEND - WARMING TREND ALERT
A warming trend will commence today as
the Canadian high departs and winds shift south. Temperatures will
increase about 10 degrees over yesterday with another 10 to 15 degree
jump on Sunday under zonal flow aloft.
In addition to shifting to the south a
weak wave moving across southern Canada will drop pressures over the
Northern Plains and increase the pressure gradient during the day
today. Moisture will lag resulting in RH values dropping into the 30's
and an elevated threat for the spread of grass fires.
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