MONDAY
A weak front will push across the area
Monday night and Tuesday as a shortwave trough tracks along
U.S/Canadian border. Moisture flux ahead of this system will be just
enough to generate some patchy
drizzle or light rain especially across
the eastern Ozarks.
WEDNESDAY
The front will return northward as a
warm front on Wednesday allowing for even warmer temperatures. Highs
in the lower 60's will be common Wednesday.
A more active weather pattern will
unfold late in the week into the weekend as a powerful storm system
pushes onto the west coast then digs into the desert southwest. The
evolution of this system remains highly uncertain with model
solutions differing significantly.
THURSDAY
By late Thursday evening, a low level
jet and isentropic upglide will commence across southern Missouri as
upper level low pressure digs south along the central California
coast. We are expecting
precipitation to break out across far
southern Missouri and begin spreading north into the Highway 60
corridor by sunrise. We have a hunch that this precipitation may
start sooner than some models
are indicating...possibly even before
midnight over parts of southern Missouri.
Precipitation type will largely be
freezing rain (or freezing drizzle) tonight as the freezing line
should make it at least to the Missouri/Arkansas border. Our hunch is
that it will actually make it farther south into northern Arkansas.
There may be a few pockets of sleet mixed in as there will be some
weak instability available.
FRIDAY
Model solutions further diverge Friday
night into Saturday resulting from different handling of the upper
low coming out of desert southwest. The GFS model paints a colder
scenario and greater potential of wintry precipitation
including freezing rain while the ECMWF model brings warmer
air northward with less potential for wintry precipitation. In either
case active weather is expected with the potential of moderate to
heavy precipitation amounts.
Again it is emphasized that this is a
low confidence forecast with uncertainty related to precipitation
types and amounts. We expect additional changes and refinements to
the forecast. Please stay tuned to the latest weather forecast as
additional model data is analyzed. www.taneyservices.com
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