Taney Cty work week 4!

As Monday Approaches: An upper level low will move across the Plains into Minnesota Sunday into Sunday night and send a cold front east across the area. Breezy and gusty southerly winds will occur Sunday ahead of the storm system and front.

Low level moisture will increase across the region with the aid of the strong low level winds. However, instability will remain weak as the better upper level support and height falls remain north of the area. As a result, we do not expect much in the way of any convection ahead of the front. As the front moves into the area from west to east late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night a line of convection, likely fairly narrow in nature, is expected to develop along the front and track east across the area. With the weak instability may not see a lot of lightning, but there may be enough instability for a few rumbles of thunder. Given the strong low level wind fields some stronger wind gusts mixing down to the surface in the line of convection will be possible mainly west of Highway 65 where the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Severe Risk in place for Sunday late afternoon/evening. Localized damaging wind risk will be the main risk with this activity.

Monday: Behind this system a more zonal upper air pattern will occur early next week as highs in the 40's to near 50 to occur Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday: An upper level trough will then track east across the Plains during the middle of next week bringing additional rain chances to the region Tuesday night into Thursday. Warmer air will be advecting north into the area so mainly rain will occur Tuesday night and Wednesday with possibly some light snow occurring on the back side of the system Wednesday night into Thursday. At this time no accumulations are expected.

Thursday onward: Other than the aforementioned low end rain chances, a frontal passage Wednesday night should be dry. Cooler and considerably drier air will build into the area on Thursday along with gusty northwest winds. This will yield of the first day of elevated fire weather conditions, as humidity drops to between 30 and 35 percent during the afternoon hours.

An upper level shortwave trough will spread across the southern Plains into the region bringing rain chances to the area, with the better chances across the eastern Ozarks. Highs will warm into the 50s this afternoon then into the 60's on Monday.

An upper level trough will then spread across the northern Plains by the middle of next week bringing much colder conditions to the region.

A couple of weak shortwaves will approach the area over the weekend, resulting in occasional shower chances Saturday and Sunday. The best chances look to be over far south central MO Saturday night into Sunday, though guidance has been pushing precipitation further and further southeast with time, so even this may be in question.