Taney County MO November work week 1!

What can I say, other than that the warm conditions will continue, at least through Wednesday.

Then, a somewhat complicated scenario will unfold across the region for Wednesday and Wednesday night. An upper level trough will progress east across the northern and central Plains before beginning to dig southeast towards the Ohio Valley by Thursday morning. This trough will drive a cold front south through the Missouri Ozarks from Wednesday evening into the overnight period. Confidence remains high that most of the area will see a round of showers and thunderstorms along and behind that front Wednesday night.

Another feature of note is a short wave trough that is forecast to move northeast through northern Arkansas or southern Missouri from Wednesday morning into perhaps early Wednesday afternoon. This feature could provide a trigger for earlier convection. This will especially be true if that wave arrives a bit slower (during peak heating) than models are advertising. Otherwise, Wednesday may largely be dry for the majority of the Missouri Ozarks.

There may be a window of opportunity for some stronger storms from southeastern Kansas into west-central Missouri where current model forecasts indicate a decent likelihood for MLCAPEs of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective deep layer shear around 30 knots Wednesday afternoon and early Wednesday evening. The key will be whether or not storms can push into this region before instability begins to wane due to the loss of daytime heating.

That digging wave will then drive that front down into the northern Gulf of Mexico by Friday morning. After another mild Wednesday, cooler temperatures are expected to end the work week. Highs will be in the upper 60's to around 70 degrees with lows in the 40s.

The upcoming weekend then looks very pleasant as a sprawling area of surface high pressure slowly makes its way southeast across the Middle Mississippi Valley region. High temperatures will remain in the upper 60's to lower 70s.

There are some signals for a system passing through the region sometime in the Monday night through Wednesday time frame. However, global models really seem to be struggling with the large scale pattern. Thus, confidence is very low regarding what will transpire early next week.