November 2015 was nice!

As we were finishing up one of the warmest Octobers on record, my attention turned to November 2016 and what sort of stuff we could expect!

The normal range for temps in November is 58ºF for the average high and 34ºF for the low. When you think about it, that's not a very bad range. Shown above, is a graph of the temps I recorded for my Davis weather station in Forsyth Missouri in 2015. That year the averages were 63ºF and 41ºF! Quite a departure from the normal with some folks saying global warming and such things as that.

The month was also wetter than normal with a recorded rainfall amount of 6.84 inches versus a normal average of 4.9 inches. So, we had us a pretty durn nice month all told!

Another indicator of what is trending is the Arctic Oscillation index or AO. In simple terms, it indicates the degree to which Arctic air penetrates into middle latitudes which is defined by surface atmospheric pressure patterns. When the AO index is positive, surface pressure is low in the polar region. This helps the middle latitude jet stream to blow strongly and consistently from west to east, thus keeping cold Arctic air locked in the polar region. And that's normally a good thing. When the AO index is negative, there tends to be high pressure in the polar region, weaker zonal winds, and greater movement of frigid polar air into middle latitudes. Here's a look at the current graphic:

 Note that the 'trend' line is heading into the negative. That by itself doesn't mean a lot. However, the ENSO or El Niño Southern Oscillation is also trending toward a neutral phase which could bear some watching as it is slightly re-enforcing the trending pattern for a colder than normal winter to come!