Temps this week will generally be
warmer than last week. A strong southerly flow will increase
through the mid week ahead of our next system. Temperatures early on
should be a few degrees
above average for both daytime highs
and overnight lows.
An upper level trough or front will
begin to move eastward with time across the western states and into
the plains by Wednesday. This trough is forecast to slow as it nears
our area, which should position our region under a southwesterly flow
aloft from Wednesday through perhaps Friday. A series of impulses are
forecast to develop and ride northeastward within this flow. A cold
frontal boundary is also forecast to push eastward toward our area by
midweek, however, this front stalls within the SW to NE flow regime.
With each impulse there will be a wave of showers and T`storms
develop and move through the region. The better rain chances will
reside across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.
As for strong storm potential, there
may be a low chance of a stronger storm or two west of the interstate
49 corridor early Wednesday, however, timing doesn't support anything
more than a marginal threat. On Wednesday, the atmosphere looks
rather capped with height rises behind the earlier shortwave. The
better shot at storms will likely occur north of our area in closer
proximity to the surface frontal boundary.
Finally, a strong shortwave is expected
to push the cold front through the region late Friday. The
orientation and evolution of the trough is still in question with
some differences among the global computer runs with the ECMWF being
a bit flatter, which causes a slower progression with the front.
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