Monday, October 3, 2016

Taney County work week 1 for October


Temps this week will generally be warmer than last week. A strong southerly flow will increase through the mid week ahead of our next system. Temperatures early on should be a few degrees
above average for both daytime highs and overnight lows.

An upper level trough or front will begin to move eastward with time across the western states and into the plains by Wednesday. This trough is forecast to slow as it nears our area, which should position our region under a southwesterly flow aloft from Wednesday through perhaps Friday. A series of impulses are forecast to develop and ride northeastward within this flow. A cold frontal boundary is also forecast to push eastward toward our area by midweek, however, this front stalls within the SW to NE flow regime. With each impulse there will be a wave of showers and T`storms develop and move through the region. The better rain chances will reside across southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri.

As for strong storm potential, there may be a low chance of a stronger storm or two west of the interstate 49 corridor early Wednesday, however, timing doesn't support anything more than a marginal threat. On Wednesday, the atmosphere looks rather capped with height rises behind the earlier shortwave. The better shot at storms will likely occur north of our area in closer proximity to the surface frontal boundary.

Finally, a strong shortwave is expected to push the cold front through the region late Friday. The orientation and evolution of the trough is still in question with some differences among the global computer runs with the ECMWF being a bit flatter, which causes a slower progression with the front.

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