March may enter with an ice storm in tow!

The mega computers that serve the National Weather Service have been really cranking as of late and the forecasts are not looking good as we get ready to enter the first weekend of Match 2014 down here in southwest Missouri!

It's becoming increasingly likely that ice, in some form, will impact the area around Taney County Missouri including the cities of Branson and Forsyth starting as early as Friday night, February the 28^th. And while there are more questions than answers as of this post, some of the climatic factors that favor an icing event will be on hand for the Saturday night through Sunday time frame.

The exact wording from the NWS follows:

"Comparison of the synoptic scale setup advertised by the global models to the climatology for ice storms across the Ozarks is worrisome. The CIPS (Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems) analogs continue to show a strong signal for ice accumulation across the Ozarks."

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
411 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2014

Right now, freezing rain, thunder sleet, wrap around snow and ice accumulations of greater than a quarter of an inch are all on the forecast table for the greater Ozarks area! A lot will depend on the exact track of the low pressure system as it swings across the area Saturday evening!

Everyone would be well advised to pay particular attention to any winter advisories or warnings that might be issued by the weather service over the next couple of days! Get any needed grocery shopping done by early Friday, have a plan for if the power goes out for an extended period of time and touch base with friends and the elderly to make sure they are informed and safe!

Back to back storm systems to impact area!

With March literally knocking on the door, a pair of storm systems are due impact the Forsyth Missouri area beginning on Friday, March the 28^th with another storm system coming in late on Saturday, March the 1^st!

Of the two system, the Saturday one will be the more potent of the two. Friday's system may end up being an all rain events for most everyone as a wide temperature gradient will set up across the region. Look for brisk winds and the possibility of some light snow or sleet developing depending on how fast everything sets up. This will be what the weather service likes to refer to as a 'quick hitter' that should be here and then gone rather quickly.

The second, and more potent system is due in our are on Saturday late afternoon to early evening. The NWS expects all of our region will be in the cold sector. Precipitation will then develop later on Saturday without question. However, it is the type of precipitation that is in question, at this time. Generally, we can generally expect to see a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow for much of the period that could extend through much of Sunday!

Cold pattern to persist through the end of February 2014!

As we get ready to enter the last week of February 2014, the National Weather Service is calling for cool conditions all across the Midwest, including Taney County Missouri, where I make my home. It seems those pesky Canadians have an over abundance of cold air and want to share that fact with us.

This pattern of a cold northwesterly flow has been with us for much of the winter season and it is hopeful that this pattern will change as we enter into March with the official start of Spring occurring on the 20 ^th of that month! As of this post, my area in southwest Missouri is still running about six degrees cooler than what is the historical average. This fact has translated into higher than normal heating cost for thousands, with everyone looking forward to a warm up in the near term!

on the 20

Rainfall totals have also been meager for the month with my location near Forsyth, MO recording only .76 of an inch of rain versus a 2.99 inch average. Chances for additional rainfall also appear to be slim to none for the balance of the month! See more weather updates at www.taneyservices.com!

With winter on the wane, I now have allergies to look forward to..

Advancing age brings with it a set of new challenges. My muscles atrophy and my joints ache whenever the weather outside changes even a little bit! But, now as winter is getting herself ready to exit stage right, along comes Ms. Spring with all her pollen laden tree friends and then the fun really begins!

In some years, there's even a 'magic point in time' where I find myself still aching from cold related weather events while also am fully involved with teary eyes and a running nose! That generally occurs in late March when we can still get cold snaps, but yet all the trees around me are also producing pollen like there's no tomorrow! (Living, at that point, becomes a challenge as I find I must stay indoors hugging an air purifier while taking aspirin for the pain)...

One great site that covers all things pollen, pretty well is Pollen.com. They have interactive maps that allow you to drill down to your particular area and to even see what the most prevalent pollen producers are. The graphic above was for this date in February. I was also informed that the culprit

for that date was the Juniper trees that adorn all the hillsides around where I live. On some special days when the air is still, you can see pollen rising from them in the form of a slightly reddish smoke! Oh joy! When those tiny particles make it into my nose, my body instantly assumes some alien invasion has occurred and throttles up my immune system to Condition Red! It's like getting an instant case of the flu! Wham bam thank you m'am! Maybe I'll get smart one of these days and move out to the desert where the only things to worry about will be rattlesnakes and scorpions...

Another 'dry' storm goes on by!

After much hoopla and hope, the latest storm system has left my home in southwest Missouri high and dry....yet again!

With just .76 of an inch of rain falling in the Forsyth Missouri area this month, we are now rapidly falling behind the statistical average. We should be at around 5.5 inches, year to date, and yet are currently sitting at just 1.84 inches! Hopefully, we will make this up in the coming months as more of an active weather pattern is expected.

In the cold department, I think everyone would agree that we've achieved our quota and then some! The mean temperature, this month is still 7.7 degree below normal and the coming week may add to that total as it is expected to be colder than normal for much of that time!

Will crazy weather prevail this spring?

After I read about U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's recent speech where he stated that 'climate change ranks among the world's most serious problems -- such as disease outbreaks, poverty, terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction', I was given pause. Perhaps the man is right! Perhaps our planet's climate has become so screwed up, it will begin to retaliate with monster storms, tornadoes of unheard of destructive power and hurricanes that will kill thousands every year! Wow! Talk about your basic end of the world kind of scenario!

The truth of the matter is that, yes, our climate is changing. It was changing 500 million years ago and it will be changing long after man has gone the way of the dodo bird. The real question is whether or not it's all mankind doing, and if so, what would be the cure?

I've stated, all along, that part of the problem this planet faces is a population problem. More concisely, it's an over population problem brought on by the mindless way in which we all duplicate ourselves with such wild abandon! (Seriously, don't ya think seven billion humans is enough for one measly ball of granite)? After all, we need to share this planet with other animals; fish, birds and all manner of microbes. Each of which has just as much right to a decent life as any human does. (Maybe they even have more of a right, as few to no other organisms (other than man), pollute and destroy the environment as well or as fast!

But, for the record, let's say that the climate is spiraling out of control for whatever reason. If that is true, we can expect thing's to get much more dicey in the near future. Just like an unbalanced top that wobbles more and more erratically, so too must the climate begin to go from one extreme form of weather to the next if the weather worriers are correct. In other words, there should be a clear and a persistent trend that any lay-bob person could look at and say, 'Hell yes, things are getting worst!"

So, let's all watch with analytical eyes as this spring, summer and fall unfold. If Kerry and his kind are correct, a good case will be then made to take corrective action - that being the culling of about half the world's population. After all, on a scale of this magnitude, that's about the only thing that would make any sense! And who knows, maybe we could work out a solution in the manner of that movie - Soylant Green! Bon appetite everyone!

Cold mornings in February will become a thing of the past!

The 14th saw a normal high and low for the first time in a while!

As we approach and the go by the mid point of the month of February, all these below freezing mornings we've been experiencing will decrease dramatically in number and severity. That's the hope at any rate! Current computer modeling see a very basic shift in the weather regime from arctic style cold to a much more moderate and normal state for this time of year. Look for temperatures to begin hitting the 60 degree mark with some irregularity and then not dropping much below freezing during the nights. 

In addition, the sun is currently in an active phase which means an increased risk of solar storms, some of which could adversely impact the earth!

STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Feb. 15th in response to three incoming CMEs (Corneal Mass Ejections). The first two, which left the sun on Feb. 11th, have probably merged in transit to form a single "cannibal CME" more potent than either of its constituents. The third CME, launched on Feb. 12th, is following close on their heels. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras.

My home-based Geiger counter which is displayed at www.taneyservice.com – see the Radiation tab – will hopefully record any increase in radiation levels over time. 

Please! Do no run amok!

After we all have been forced to endure lately, what has essentially been a deep freeze for weeks on end, it’s only natural for us to want to get outside in the fresh air! But, that doesn’t mean we can all run amok!

According to the weather service, this coming Sunday might see temperatures that will hover close to the mid 50 degree mark! When that happens and it's on a weekend, they caution it just might look a lot like a prison break as thousands who are suffering from ‘cabin fever’ make a run for the outdoors! They add that, 'mindless scampering, dashing about and cavorting will likely occur as the populace tries to burn off the effects of being cooped up for so long'! I know I'll be among that group!

Forecasters also caution everyone that, with winds shifting to a southwesterly direction, we might even get a brief whiff of spring and who knows what effect that will have? Having said that, they caution that winter ain't over by a long shot!

Will mid February see a turning point?

After the near record cold that began the month, February 2014 may turn the corner mid-month and show everyone her warmer side! The NWS is forecasting for better (and wetter) weather as we enter the halfway point of the month with temperatures approaching 60F possible! I think most everyone I know could live with that form of global warming especially after enduring temperatures in the first days that were as much as 25 degrees below average! Finally, the snow that has hung around for well over a week can melt, thereby ensuring a green spring yet to come!

What? You think it might be warming? Well, yet it just might!

Sacrebleu! You mean to tell me that the temperature will only fall to 20F overnight on Thursday! Well, actually it didn't really fall at all as is stayed at 20F for most of this day 7 in February 2014.

And, yo give myself some credit, I've sorta of gotten used to all that old snow hanging around, like last years flu. OK, sure it's getting a little bit dingy and ragged around the edges at this point, but hey so am I! In a carbon fouled world like ours, virgin snow just can't stay Lilly white for very long!

But, the weather she is improving is she not? After back to back near zero nights, we are looking to get a bit of a reprieve with readings in the upper 30's forecast for Saturday and Sunday – before they plunge right back down into cold oblivion come Monday...

Wow! Upper 30's! Sounds almost too warm to me. The truth be told, this cold wave is about over – by mid week next week we should be in the mid 40's and yes, that will feel pretty warm to most everyone.

Protect your crawlspace pipes from freezing with still air!

Vent are with Meade wireless thermometer

Earlier this winter, when the temperature outdoors plummeted to below zero, I had a water pipe briefly freeze up. When I got under the house in a crawlspace and inspected the area, I discovered that the cover had come off an outdoor vent and had allowed freezing air to blow across the affected pipe. Fortunately, for me, that pipe did not rupture and I was able to defrost it without any harm. The lesson I learned from this experience was; 1) make sure that the air is still or not moving in any of the crawlspaces by blocking vents and filling any gaps and 2) make sure to monitor those or similar areas whenever really cold weather threatens.

As a follow up to this, and on the eve of the next cold wave that hit on February the 6^th, I got under the house and made sure that the two vents located there were thoroughly blocked. At that time, I also installed a wireless thermometer that could be monitored from inside the house. That way I could keep an eye on what the ambient temperature down there was over the course of any really cold evening. Interestingly, even though it got down to only 5 above zero that evening, the temperature in the crawlspace never dropped below 43F! However, just to be on the safe side, I also set up a small space heater on an extension cord that could be turned on in cast things got too dicey!

Ice station Forsyth reporting!

'As it now appears to me that the arctic line has shifted down to include the Midwestern parts of America, I can only say that I do so embrace the cold crappy weather we've all been enduring in such a stoic manner!'

Overnight (Feb the 5^th), the mercury dipped to just 6 above zero down in much of southwest Missouri! That included the town of Forsyth Missouri where I make my home. (Still, balmy when compared to the likes of Peoria Illinois at 6 below or Bismark, North Dakota that flirted with 10 below)! I wonder what those folks heating costs will be this month?

Unfortunately, this litany of frigid weather is due to last for some time to come. According to a statement by the NWS, an arctic air mass has now become 'entrenched' over the central U.S. Entrenched! What is this, a war? Not only that, but they are also forecasting a 'series of disturbances' to impact our region over the coming week. Swell! I think the other word they like to banter about is 'active', as in it will be an active weather pattern for the balance of the first half of February 2014. What that basically translates to is water of the frozen variety occurring on Friday the 7^th and then again early next week. Visit www.taneyservices.com for more weather!

Ten facts about global climate change!

Step outside anytime over the next week or so anywhere in the Midwest and then tell me how warm and fuzzy you felt! The mere fact that the temperature only reach a daily high of 20F over the next week might give you a clue as how to respond. Just don't bother telling anything to the Global Warming crowd – they will shout back at you that, 'oh yes, periods of extreme cold can be expected – but don't you worry, it will get really warm again! And, we're totally serial about that!'

OK, that sure sounds sane to me. Not!

The problem is, if you took all the Global Warming left wing nuts and mushed them all together, you might just have enough mental material to build yourself a small anvil. Truth be told, the vast majority of these mental midgets don't have very much going for them in the way of a real education in the global climate sciences. Yet, they are the ones you see on TV trying to tell everyone (who will listen), what to do about climate control.

Well, I'm not listening and that's probably a good thing.

Here are 10 actual facts to ponder:

1. Climate has always changed, and it always will. The assumption that prior to the industrial revolution the Earth had a “stable” climate is simply wrong. The only sensible thing to do about climate change is to prepare for it.

2. Accurate temperature measurements made from weather balloons and satellites since the late 1950s show no atmospheric warming since 1958. In contrast, averaged ground-based thermometers record a warming of about 0.40 C over the same time period. Many scientists believe that the thermometer record is biased by the Urban Heat Island effect and other artifacts.

3. Despite the expenditure of more than US $50 billion dollars looking for it since 1990, no unambiguous anthropogenic (human) signal has been identified in the global temperature pattern.

4.Without the greenhouse effect, the average surface temperature on Earth would be -18 C rather than the equable +15 C that has nurtured the development of life.

Carbon dioxide is a minor greenhouse gas, responsible for ~26% (80 C) of the total greenhouse effect (33C), of which in turn at most 25% (~20C) can be attributed to carbon dioxide contributed by human activity. Water vapor, contributing at least 70% of the effect, is by far the most important atmospheric greenhouse gas.

5. On both annual (1 year) and geological (up to 100,000 year) time scales, changes in atmospheric temperature PRECEDE changes in CO2. Carbon dioxide therefore cannot be the primary forcing agent for temperature increase (though increasing CO2 does cause a small mild positive temperature feedback).

6. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has acted as the main scaremonger for the global warming lobby that led to the Kyoto Protocol. Fatally, the IPCC is a political, not scientific, body.

Hendrik Tennekes, a retired Director of Research at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, says that “the IPCC review process is fatally flawed” and that “the IPCC willfully ignores the paradigm shift created by the foremost meteorologist of the twentieth century, Edward Lorenz“.

7. The Kyoto Protocol will cost many trillions of dollars and exercises a significant impost those countries that signed it, but will deliver no significant cooling (less than .020 C by 2050, assuming that all commitments are met).

The Russian Academy of Sciences says that Kyoto has no scientific basis; Andre Illarianov, senior adviser to Russian president Putin, calls Kyoto-ism “one of the most aggressive, intrusive, destructive ideologies since the collapse of communism and fascism“. If Kyoto was a “first step” then it was in the same wrong direction as the later “Bali road map”.

8. Climate change is a non-linear (chaotic) process, some parts of which are only dimly or not at all understood. No deterministic computer model will ever be able to make an accurate prediction of climate 100 years into the future.

9. Not surprisingly, therefore, experts in computer modeling agree also that no current (or likely near-future) climate model is able to make accurate predictions of regional climate change.

10. The biggest untruth about human global warming is the assertion that nearly all scientists agree that it is occurring, and at a dangerous rate.

Some material in this post was copied from www.globalresearch.ca

Southwest Missouri is in a deep freeze and you will pay!

After all the hype that has been circulating concerning the winter storms – four of them at last count in February so far – what hasn't got much coverage is the persistent cold! From this date, on the 3^rd, to next Monday the 10^th we will be hanging out in below freezing air! Your electric meter will also be going Cha-Ching!

Never mind all the wild animals that will suffer as a result of such cold, think about back to back to back record heating bills and what that might do to the family budget!! Last year I was harping on an electric bill that hit a hundred plus dollars – this year it's been double that starting with December! While our President ponders the Keystone pipeline, energy prices in America are skyrocketing and guess what – things are about to get worst – much worst as food prices are progged to run up through the roof.

The best advice I have is for everyone to hunker down, endure the assaults of this winter and then come this fall, vote the Progressive Left into oblivion.

Winter storm Nika on Tuesday might miss Forsyth!

With a little tiny bit of luck, the widely publicized winter storm called Nika, due to impact the region on Tuesday, February the 4th may just miss the Branson-Forsyth MO area and track off to the north and west. The exact amounts and the geographic orientation of the heaviest snow and or of ice are uncertain and will depend on the track of the area of the central area of low pressure.

That said, it would be a good idea for everyone to take note of what is going on when they arise on

Tuesday morning. An even better bet would be to have a weather alert radio turned on to help you stay on top of events as they unfold. I use a Midland WR300 radio that can be purchased at Amazon for about $45.

Update: Well, this much publicized storm did do a number on northeast Missouri while down my way it amount to about two inches. On a positive note, the snow sure did look pretty. On a sour note, we now have to endure really cold 20'ish degree weather until Monday, Feb the 10th1

Well, wasn't that surprise snowfall a lot of fun?

Forsyth MO - Sunday morning, February the 2^nd broke overcast and cold. Up in Springfield, at the National Weather Service, more than one meteorologist must have looked with growing concern at a snow shield that was quickly moving in to the Taney County area from the southwest. A winter weather advisory was issued, but many of the people who needed to see it were already heading out for church services.

By 9AM, as many were just arriving at their church of choice, a very light snow had begun to fall. Not really all that much at first, but then it started to come down steady and hard as the morning advanced. I sure a few took note and maybe headed for the exits to make their way home. They were the fortunate ones, as the door to safety was now swiftly closing. By 10 AM, I feel that door had closed and that perhaps hundreds were now effectively stranded (although they might not have been aware of it).

I suppose it will never be known how many places of worship decided to close early and let their flocks go home. What is sure is that by 11 PM the roads in and around Branson and Forsyth were now packed with vehicles all trying to get home. This at a time where the snow amounts were quickly exceeding two or more inches! Events unfolded so fast that snow plows could not respond quickly enough and so, by 11:30 AM the slide offs began to... well, snowball as it were. Those unfortunates combined with spin outs and wrecks to quickly clog up major access roads. A situation that hampered or prevented outright the ability of the plows to get through and stay ahead of the problems. Emergency services were likewise adversely affected and so hundreds and hundreds of people suddenly found themselves in dire straits.

How could this complete mess have been prevented or reduced? I think that the responsibility lies, in part at least, with the churches themselves. Or to put it another way, any establishment that attracts a large venue of people must be on extra high alert whenever inclement weather might strike. And, they must take affirmative action to protect the public form harm even if by doing so they lose a few pieces of silver.

February 2nd surprise snowfall was a disaster for many motorists!

Right on schedule and as predicted by the National Weather Service, snow began to fall in the Forsyth area at around 9:30 AM. And with the ground cold and temperatures that hovered in the upper twenties, accumulation began to occur almost immediately! Such that by 11 AM, the side roads had become covered with about a quarter of an inch of the white stuff with more to come! It's too bad this happened on Super bowl Sunday when a lot of folks may have made plans to go to friends homes to watch the

game.

At half past eleven in the morning, my police scanner was reporting numerous slide offs all over the area. The NWS was also now predicting 2 inches in the Taney County area with up to six falling north of the I-44 corridor!

By noontime, a report came over the police scanner informing me that they had shut down Hey 76 pending the removal of a ton of slide offs  with some vehicles completely overturned!

Time lapse of entire event

anyone who has been to Branson can testify to just how hilly the area is - I can just picture how terrified some of the motorists must be to find themselves basically trapped on these hills. Locations like Bee Creek road were reported to have as many as 30 vehicles off the road and in a jumble! And the snow continues to fall... If you have a scanner, be sure to tune to 460.300 to listen in as the local police dispatch tries to work their way through a big mess of stranded motorists. I'm always flabbergasted that people don't do a better job of planning whenever the weather service puts out a winter advisory as they had done in this case.

Being the weather watcher that I am, I made sure to get out early and get my grocery shopping done before the nine o'clock hour. I bought enough for a few days, just in case. (Another winter storm is shaping up for next weekend). Most concerning to me is the possibility of freezing rain or sleet on this coming Monday night. Down here in the hills of the Ozarks, it's just not worth the risk when the weather gets like that.

Late note: From the stories that have been filtering in on Facebook and the scanner, I'm sure this storm will be talked about for some time to come. It appears as though hundreds of motorists were involved in slide off and accidents due to the unexpected heavy snowfall.

Old Man Winter wakes up!

After nearly a month, in January, of chilly somnolence; contenting himself with an occasional cold wave or two, Old man Winter is back!

According to the National weather Service, the first week of February 2014 will be active! Now, when the NWS uses that particular word - ACTIVE, they ain't just playing around! As one weather forecaster put it, 'plan for the best, but expect the worst' when it comes to what might get thrown at the southwest Missouri corridor over the next few days!

Early on the morning of February the 1^st, it now looks like as many as four significant storms... make that winter storms - could impact the Branson-Forsyth area situated in Taney County Missouri. All of these frontal systems will likely include moisture in one of its many varied forms often seen in the winter time; mist, sleet, snow and ice are all in the forecast mix! And, right on cue, Saturday morning saw a light drizzle falling under overcast skies with temperatures in the mid forties. This warm scenario will likely last through the day before the cold front drops on down and changes the mist into some form of sleet later in the evening hours.

So, what's the most likely point at which; A) you'll want to get your grocery shopping done and B) the going gets a bit tough on the highways and byways? Two very good questions.

The first question is really more of a timing issue. The below freezing boundary on Monday morning was draped along the I-44 corridor and is not expected to drop down until the afternoon hours. At the same time a low pressure center will transit diagonally across the area (southwest to northeast) and winds will then begin to pick up from the north. This will set the stage for rapidly cooling temperatures that could result in some light sleet or freezing rain later into the afternoon and early evening. So be careful later today. That said, I don't see any real accumulation and the main roads should be OK. Then, on Sunday, I think our area and locations close to the Arkansas border will see up to an inch of snow from a system that will pass us to the south. This could occur in the afternoon hours on into evening. Based on that assumption, I'd get my vittles in no later than early Saturday afternoon which is today!

I think that the second question, about when it will get really nasty, will wait until sometime Monday night when 'all hell' will likely break lose (my opinion)! The mega weather computers are all coming into agreement that many of the factors needed to make travel next to impossible will slam into our area late Monday into Tuesday morning! So, any last minute procrastinators will need to hit the store for groceries on Monday morning latest! Then, my advice will be to hunker on down....

For an up to date look at the current weather, visit my site at www.taneyservices.com!

Disclaimer: The author of this post is a weather watcher, not a weather professional. The contents of this post constitute his opinions and may or may not be accurate.