NWS (edited and paraphrased by this site) – A upper (frontal) wave that is currently situated over the central north Pacific will move onshore into the Pacific NW late Friday night then proceed to dig southeast into the southwest U.S. early this coming weekend. Guidance varies, but the mean/median guidance does point to an increasing chance for snow on Sunday and Monday. Hard to be too specific with amounts given where this system initialized, but there is a general agreement concerning the high potential for accumulating snow. System will run into a southwest to northeast baroclinic zone and southwest Missouri will be on the (very) cold side of the zone, with temperatures in the single digits and lower teens, during this time. Initially, precip may fight some dry air with a weaker first wave Sunday/Sunday night, but a second wave (potentially) will bring additional snow on Monday. [How’s that for hedging our bets!]
The forecast snow amounts for now will be inherently somewhat conservative given that it is a model blend. It does yield 3-5 inches from northwest to southeast over the CWFA or County Warning Forecast Area (official). Concerned that the NBM (National Blend of Models) snow ratios are too low, ran a quick snow forecast based on 50th percentile for snow ratio guidance (close to 20:1) which yielded snow amounts about 2-3 inches higher (unofficial). We will definitely need to keep an eye on this system. Given how cold it will be, snow ratios will be high and will easily accumulate on a very cold ground.
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