What to expect for November in the way of weather!

Ah yes, November! A most interesting month. In many ways it's like March only November comes in like a lamb and can leave like a lion! Expect pretty nice and warmish temperatures through the first two weeks of this month and then watch out as the night times get seriously cold just before the end of the month (see graph of Nov 2010). 

 The average high is 57F and the average low is 33F where I live in southwest Missouri. However, that figure is skewed somewhat with the warmer stuff coming early on, followed by rapidly cooling conditions late. The reason; more and more aggressive incursions of cold air from the northwest in the form of fronts that also bring moisture as a consequence. Expect rainfall to be close to four inches as a result. Note: Last year was a little dry at about 2.50 inches!

So, think cold and damp as one way to characterize November. Ergo, not my most favorite month, but still way out ahead of the evil trio that is December through February. Please remember though, that just as as this month is often humid, so it is that cold dry air will soon follow. Time to make sure you have a humidifier in good working order. I have an old Duracraft DH799 unit that uses three filters that have to be replace every year. I also need to remember to order a bottle of anti-bacteria solution. Sometime in early December, I'll have this unit running pretty much full time to help keep the air in my home moist. This actually helps my heat pump out as the air will hold heat better if the humidity is at 40% or there about. For more on that, please see my article on moisture control.

Freak East Coast storm or part of a pattern?

October 29, 2011 - The northern section of the east coast was slammed with what they termed a ‘rare nor’easter’ that killed three people and left millions without power.  But was it really? Or, was this the opening shot of what could be a very strange winter for North America?

Read more on this story here!

Like a Yo-Yo, the weather will be up and then down and then…!

After hearing the words ‘unseasonably warm’ for the better part of a week, get ready for the warm part to become the unseasonably cold part.

The National Weather Service has announced ‘colder than normal conditions’ can be expected starting about Wednesday of the coming week as a Canadian air mass makes an incursion into the Midwest. Morning temperatures on Thursday may be below freezing, especially in low lying areas. So, be prepared!

First two week weather recap for October 2011!

The month of October averaged about 4 degrees F. warmer than what is the historical standard. This made it a great month to be outdoors as most days were clear, dry and pleasantly warm. Yet, we also had enough rain to keep us about where we need to be in that department. The month of October normally sees about 3 1/3 inches of rain, so we need only about two more inches to make that target.

This trend for warmer than normal weather should continue until about Tuesday, October 17th when colder conditions will begin to take hold. The weather service is predicting highs in the fifties and lows approaching the freezing mark.

I also thought to include the current Arctic Oscillation Index (AO) for informational purposes:

 I've noted that all the models are trending towards a negative index. This would seem to indicate the potential for colder than normal conditions coming in the near future.

Overnight temps to hit freezing mark for the first time!

As early as Tuesday, Oct the 18^th or as late as Thursday, the National Weather Service expects to see the outside overnight temperatures to get close to or at the 32F mark for the first time this fall. Last year in 2010, this did not happen until the 29^th.

While there is no significance to this, it will be interesting to follow the mean weekly temperatures as we get into the month of November.

In the meantime, anyone who wants to protect cold sensitive plants may want to cover them by the 18^th .

October 12, 2011 dawns with the crack of thunder and lots of rain!

Starting at around 5:30 AM in the Forsyth, Missouri area loud and sharp air to ground lightening strikes intensified as they responded to a frontal trough. I have to say that the thunder had a real hard sounding quality to it and, as is normal around here, we lost power for about half a minute. Actually, make that twice as a close lightening strike knocked it out again for a second as I was writing this post. Shocking enough to make your heart stop!! This sort of thing happens with regularity as the local coop, Empire Electric, seems to have only the most tenuous grasp on its electric grid. (When I lived in Chicago with Com Ed, it would take a blizzard to kill the power). Thinking of which, should we experience a hard winter, I cannot imagine this utility working all the time and so would urge everyone to go out and buy a good backup generator.

Along with the thunder came rain, with a real downpour occurring at about 6AM. This didn't last long as the severe part of the system moved quickly on through the area. Behind it were occasional short-lived downpours interspersed with light periods of rain that continued on into the morning hours.

The rainfall for the month, as of noon, amounted to 2 inches in a month that normally sees 3.4 inches. We still have a couple of weeks to go, so I'm hoping we'll hit that mark. This was good to see as I think most everyone would prefer a wet fall over a dry one. I'm not as sure, however, if that would be a good thing should it get carried into the coming winter period as that could easily spell ice! (Note: Last October saw just .56 of an inch of rain and most of that fell on the 26^th of the month).

Temperatures during this storm hovered at around 60F. Temperatures for this date expected to get up to 70F or so before a cold front makes it appearance later in the week.

Winds of Change?

click on image to animate

I’m not sure what it is about this Sunday, but I can feel a definite change. Yes, the winds are a blowing as rain heads in our general direction for Monday, but it’s more than that. Somehow the sunlight feels less intense than what I had been used to. The length of the day is now about 11 ½ hours and this will continue to shorten considerably over the next thirty days. Also, as the arch of the sun gets lower and lower in the sky, less thermal heat energy reaches the surface; a key reason why the nights gets colder this time of year.

As I look out over my yard, I can see it is full of leaves, courtesy of a lone maple tree. Maple trees lose their leaves early and so my yard already has the look of fall to it while the other yards are mostly leaf free. It’s too bad my religion prohibits me celebrating Halloween as the yard would be well suited for a pumpkin or two, right about now!

The high pressure ridge which has acted as a blocker for the rains out west have had a good effect on states like Texas, bringing some of the central parts of the state well over four inches of rain; perhaps a little payback for the folks living there!

Now, as the area of high pressure moves off to the east, that same area of rain will invade the middle states. Right behind this is a shot of colder air which will also act to bring the unseasonable warm temps we’ve been getting back down to more normal (read as colder) levels.