No matter how you slice up the day, Saturday the 13th of February, is going to pose a problem for many all over the central part of the the US.

Let me begin with the National Weather Services forecast:

‘By Thursday Feb 11, a reinforcing shot of cold air is expected to slowly filter into the region. This will keep daily highs in the lower to middle 20’s through the upcoming weekend. Cannot rule out highs in the upper teens across central Missouri. Overnight lows through the upcoming weekend will fall into the single digits to lower teens. Add in a light wind and wind chill values will make it feel closer to zero or below. This prolonged period of much below normal temperatures could potentially hang on through the middle of February. However, it is worth noting that some model guidance has backed off a bit on how far south the very cold air mass digs in. This will be assessed in future forecasts.’

So, starting with Thursday, it’s going to get really cold outside. And the very frigid core of that arctic invasion will occur on or about Saturday. (Remember to keep an eye on your pets).

The above scatter chart (that was started on Feb 3) compares actual average temps versus power used. It’s a neat tool that can allow one to predict power demands in the future based on what has happened in the past. (The red line is a power trend line to help with the visualization). Note that on Saturday, with a projected Hi of 21° and a Low of 0° the average temp for the day would be close to 11°. Then it’s easy to see that the purple line representing that average would indicate a power use of 60 kWh’s. That amount of power used would work out costing me ~ 60 kWh * 1.2535/kWh (Liberty Utility rate) = ~$8 for just that one day!

The hope is that this bolus of cold air will not penetrate as far southward as predicted. www.taneyweather.com

Southwest Missouri to experience a brutal cold wave!

 

According to my records, the last time, my small town of Forsyth Missouri, saw a string of really cold air was back in February of 2015!

Just to be fair, there have been days scattered here and there where I’d awake to temps in the teens. Sure. But, in general, a fast recovery was just around the corner. That’s not going to be the case, if the forecasts being put out by the National Weather Service is correct!

NWS statement –

'A true arctic front looks to drop into the area sometime during the day on Saturday. High temps will likely occur early in the day and then fall from there. We have not strayed too far from the mean of model guidance for temps this weekend. While there is still decent spread, there is a fairly strong signal that Sunday will be the coldest day with highs potentially remaining in the 20s, possibly colder. Low temperatures in the single digits to teens are also possible. Wind chills below zero are looking increasingly likely this weekend.'

If that statement is true, and if this sort of frigid nonsense were to go on from Saturday late (Feb 6) through Thursday, the 11th of the following work week…. Wow, that will be something to witness. Now here’s a word of caution. Best be prepared!

For a retired man, such as myself, I do know one thing for sure, I’m not likely to want to venture out very often, if the high on a particular day is only in the low thirties! So, in order to avoid that this time, I planned to visit my local grocery store, while it was still relatively warm. My motto, ‘when forewarned of chilly times, stock the shelves, perchance to hibernate, and slumber til better climes’!

For those with crawlspaces, it might be a good idea to check for any open vents as I failed to do years ago when it got very cold. Had I sealed them properly, I would have avoided an expensive plumbers bill!

Lastly, as the data above shows, cold spells that last more than a couple of days, can really cause one’s furnace to go into overload. My kilowatt hour use that February in 2015 was just over 1800 kWh’s. That translated to a whopping $234 electric bill for a man who had grown use to only about ninety dollars or so… Bummer.

But before I get too worked up. I plan to calm down, have a cup of coffee and wait for the very much more accurate update that will come along about next Thursday, Feb the 4th! Until then, I will be commenting on my weather site at www.taneyweather.com!

Cold weather for Taney County on Christmas!

God, please Bless America and Donald J. Trump!

 

Dec 22 - 

A cold arctic air mass will spill south out of northern Canada
Wednesday night into Thursday and make its way into the Ozarks
behind the cold front for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Highs
on Thursday will struggle into the 30's with lows Christmas morning
in the teens. The combination of temperatures in the teens and
winds from 5 to 15mph Christmas morning will allow some wind chill
readings to fall into the single digits for parts of the Ozarks,
especially the eastern Ozarks.

Weather forecast for 2020-21 winter!

 It was looking like it would be a tossup of the coin, as to whether we would have La Niña type weather - 'According to a recent report from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a 50-55% chance of La Niña conditions arriving this fall and lasting throughout the winter of 2020-2021.

The map shown above is a pretty generic weather forecast with my neck of the woods, in southwest Missouri, being pretty average - A bit warmer than normal with little rainfall.

First heat wave of 2020!

Forsyth MO. - Well, after an eventful spring and summer, I'm back! From where, I have no idea!

Southwest Missouri, along with much of the Midwest will get a small taste of a summer heat wave, beginning on Tuesday, July 14^th. Surface temps look to reach the mid to upper 90's with heat indices reaching 100 plus! Additionally, no rain appears in the forecast at this time!

Some weather concerns for Thursday, Jan 16 2020!

Thursday will be cooler behind a cold front combined with clouds overhead. Expect highs from the upper 30's N to the mid 40's S.

The NWS was concerned about wintry precipitation chances Thursday night into Friday morning. Surface ridging shifts east while a shortwave trough and associated surface trough moves into the western Plains. This will lead to warm air advection over a shallow cold layer. The questions are: How warm is that warm nose, how cold is the near surface cold layer, and how much precipitation will actually fall?

Most models agree that the near surface cold layer will be near or below freezing over much of the area after evaporative cooling takes place. There is some disagreement in the extent and timing of the warm nose. Precipitation may start as snow and change to freezing rain later Thursday night or Friday morning, then switch to rain as surface temperatures increase later Friday morning. For now have gone middle of the road with consensus guidance for that warm nose, which gives some freezing rain and snow snow over the eastern half of the CWA (surface temperatures are currently forecast to be a bit too warm for freezing rain over the western half, but that will need to be fine tuned). While still a bit far out, it is helpful to look as some ensemble spread in amounts for a general overview.

Finally, some winter style weather!

Taney County, MO – It was looking like area residents in southwest Missouri might finally see some winter-styled action after enjoying temperatures that were pretty far above the normal, for this time of year! As it now stands, sometime on Friday, January the 10^th, a strong frontal system will move into our area in conjunction with a robust up-welling of moist air from the gulf. The heaviest rainfall should occur from Friday afternoon on through the evening hours. At this time, the front will likely shift from west to east thereby crossing the country-wide area. As it passes on through. during the late evening hours, cold air will begin to push its way on the backside. Then, perhaps as we get into the wee hours of Saturday and on into the day, some southwest Missouri residents may expect potentially all forms of wintry precipitation; from cold rain, to freezing rain, to sleet, to grapnel and then to snow. Just who gets what will depend on where you happen to be standing, but I'd wager that most of Taney County will experience the event as one of moderate rain with a transition to some light snow late Saturday evening. Those living up further north by Springfield or off to the east by West Plains will likely get their own mix.

The real concern will be in just how much water falls where! With amounts ranging from perhaps a half inch to over four inches, everyone in flood prone areas needs to hang close to their weather radios or to televised media outlets throughout the day on Saturday. [www.taneyweather.com]