Ten day temp averages for late November and early Dec!

Forsyth Mo. - Looking at the average temps may seem a bit strange as most of us want to see what the daily high and lows will be. I like to think in terms of the average temp for the day as an indicator of where we are in terms of 'normal' historical temps. Historical, in this case, being the 30 year average for whatever month we find ourselves in. For any given November, that temperature in southwest Missouri would be about 46 degrees. (That translates to something like a hi and low of 57°F and 35°F).  That said, the chart for the last of November and the first part of December shows a continued trend of below normal temps. Tuesday, December 4, is looking particularly cold.

Looking back at the last five Novembers! Why this one was strange!

So, November has turned out to be the oddball in the mix of the last five Novembers in Forsyth MO! I came to that conclusion after taking the averages of each average day from 2014 to 2017 and then plotting that against 2018.

Even a casual glance shows a rather large deviation (-4 below average) of the daily average temperatures for this year. Why is that even significant. Well for one thing, it could an indicator of a change in the types of winter we've all grown used to... or not. What was for sure, as of November 26, was that while temps had stayed right at about normal for a long stretch of time, that something had changed. Now, whether that change really means anything is the fly in the weather ointment? Still, it'll be interesting to see what happens in December!

Another Sunday and another cold front?

Forsyth MO. - A dry slot will spread into much of the area today, besides the far northern portions of the forecast area. This dry slot will result in the lose of cloud and result in more of the way of drizzle developing mainly south of Highway 54. With temperatures falling through the day, a brief period of freezing drizzle will be possible and could result in a glazing of icing on elevated surfaces this afternoon into this evening mainly north of Highway 60. With temperatures currently quite warm early this morning, ground temperatures will also start off on the warm side. The onset of any wintry precipitation should generally melt, with any accumulations associated with bands of heavier snow. As temperatures fall into the 20s on gusty northwesterly winds later today, ground temperatures will fall this afternoon and evening and could result in wet roads freezing in spots and snow starting to accumulate, mainly along and north of Highway 54 where more snow is expected. The gusty winds will also reduce visibilities within any snow. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued generally along and north of Highway 54 where more snow is expected  https://taneyservices.net/

Storm system on Sunday to usher in below normal temps!

 Well, it is getting to be late in the fall season with December lurking just around the corner. So bundle up buttercups...

Forecast: A rather active upper level pattern brings us yet another seasonable mild day for Saturday before another digging trough over the plains brings the next system into the Ozarks Sunday. Models have begun to find agreement on the track of the system with the low center tracking generally along and north of the I-70 corridor across northern Missouri. This will keep the bulk of the precipitation and any potential for accumulating snow on the back side of the system confined to the northern most parts of the Ozarks across central Missouri.

The primary impact with this system may become the very windy conditions expected as a tight surface gradient develops. Winds will likely gust from 30 to 40 mph at times during the day Sunday.

 Behind the system Sunday, temperatures once again drop with lows Monday morning in the 20's.

The remainder of the week, while dry, will remain on the below normal side of the temperature scale for this time of the year with highs some 10 to 15 degrees below normal in the 30's and 40's through the remainder of the week. Overnight lows will also be about 10 degrees below normal.

I noted that some weather forecasters were painting a more snowy pattern for the Sunday-Monday time frame. Should such an event occur, the snow pack would all but insure colder temps as we moved into December.
 
www.taneyweather.com

First half of Nov 2018 five degrees below normal!

Forsyth MO. - I watched with a little bit of concern, the manner in which the temperatures sort of fell off the cliff over the first fifteen days in November! After experiencing a few past years that saw very warm temps, as high as seven degrees ABOVE the normal average, I had concluded that the Global Warming bull shit might have something going for it. But, no! the mercury began the month in fine fashion and then dropped like a brick! (I even saw a few days that were more reminiscent of late December)!

That all said, we seemed to be heading back to near normal conditions for the second half of the month!

Average temperatures drop in first half of November 2018!

After experience a very typical October, here in southwest Missouri, the temperatures had taken a definite downwards curve in the first half of November 2018! www.taneyweather.com

November 2018. Some initial thoughts!

After a pretty typical October month had come and gone, November entered in rainy and cold fashion with temps barely hitting the 50 degree mark for a high. Thus, as we enter into mid fall, I was left wondering how the coming winter (starting on Fri, Dec 21) was going to go...