Saturday, August 5, 2017

Taney County Weather Aug 6 to the 12th!


Starting later on Friday, August the 5th, the next 48 hours looks to be a rather wet period with several rounds of storms and heavy rainfall expected.

Periods of heavy rain and storms will be ongoing through the day Sunday and through early Monday morning as a very slow moving frontal boundary drifts to the southeast into northern Arkansas. This will continue the threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding. This will be especially true for storms that train over the same areas along the slow moving front. This period looks to have the highest potential for flooding rains to occur with 2 to 4 inches currently forecast by the majority of the models.


Monday afternoon through the majority of Wednesday looks more quiet with surface high pressure moving over the area behind the weekend storm system. This will be a needed break as models bring another system with the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall to the area for the later half of the week. Depending on the model you look at the rain could begin again as early as late Wednesday night to Thursday morning and continue into next weekend.

The one silver lining with the forecast is the unseasonably cool temperatures that are expected through next weekend. High temperatures are forecast to only climb into the upper 70's to lower 80's each day.


A front will pass south through the Ozarks on Friday as the stronger short wave energy dives across the southern Great Lakes. The potential for showers and storms will continue into Friday, especially across southern Missouri.


The big question then remains how far south of the area that front will get from this weekend into early next week. The west- northwest flow aloft will likely persist through the entire period. At this time, it still appears that the best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. Areas of central Missouri may see little in the way of precipitation this weekend.

Global models and ensembles continue to indicate that the heaviest swath of rainfall may remain just to the west and south of the Missouri Ozarks from south-central Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. There is still decent consensus for a solid 3-6" of rainfall through the weekend across that area. Areas of southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri are in line to get more in the 1-3" range, with the highest amounts near the Oklahoma border.

There are no plans for any kind of Flash Flood Watch at this time with the best signal for excessive rainfall remaining to our west and south. However, we will continue to monitor the situation closely as a shift to the northeast with the heavy rainfall axis may warrant a threat for flooding across portions of the area.

Our streak of below normal temperatures will continue through at least the middle of next week.

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