Taney County work week three in April!

MONDAY - TUESDAY

Yawn! One would think we would have seen a bit more in the rain gauge by this point! A drier and more stable air mass will spread into the region by Monday, suppressing most of the thunderstorm activity into Arkansas. Highs on Monday will warm into the low to mid 70s. Double yawn...

WEDNESDAY

Wednesday is expected to be warmer than normal, but otherwise quiet. Look for temps in the mid 80's! Yes, and it will be OK to wash those oh so dirty cars!

THURSDAY - FRIDAY

The main concern for this Thursday and Friday will heavy rain/flood potential late Thu night-Fri-Sat. Some severe storm potential is there depending on how/where a west-east frontal boundary sets up

Thu-Fri. Swell....

The front will continue to move south through the area Thursday with continued chances for showers/thunderstorms area wide at one time or another. Daytime heating will help boost cape/instability during the day Thursday with lots of shear energy present in spots. Shear that would be sufficient for organized storms. A veered surface wind will limit storm potential to hail/winds. Depending on which guidance you choose the timing for stronger storms in our area might be noon(ish) to mid afternoon before the front pushes south and east of the cwfa. The SPC marginal risk covers the area well.

FRIDAY

There is good agreement on general large scale/synoptic scale features during this time. The front will stall south of the area over OK/AR Thu night as a shortwave/upper level jet digs southeast through the southern Rockies. A slow moving upper level closed low develops near the CO/KS/OK Panhandle region by midday Fri with multiple lead impulses ahead of the main low. Increasingly more numerous and heavier showers will begin to develop late Thu night and continue Fri as waves of showers move through with the small scale upper level disturbances. Periods of heavy showers will continue Fri-Fri night-early Sat until the upper low moves overhead on Sat. Blended guidance utilized by our forecast database shows a solid 2-4 inch storm total rainfall across the area with highest amounts over southeast KS and the southwest corner of MO. The bottom line is that this type of rainfall over a large area will produce widespread flooding as early as late Thu night, but certainly Fri and through the weekend. Creeks, rivers, low water crossings, poor drainage and urban areas will all be vulnerable to flooding.

On paper, the severe storm risk looks minimal day 3/Fri, but will have to watch where the surface front to our south sets up.

On into Saturday, a closed off low develops and impacts the region with widespread rainfall. This system will also bring much cooler temperatures to the area with lows in the 40's and 50's over

the upcoming weekend.

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