Taney County Work week four!

MONDAY

The start of the work week will feature dry conditions and a warming trend. Highs by Tuesday should warm back into the upper 70's.

 TUESDAY

Models then bring a storm system out into the central U.S. From Tuesday night into Wednesday. A fair amount of spread remains regarding the eventual track of the surface low associated with this system. Some models track it along the Missouri/Arkansas border while others have it moving east across central Missouri.

It does look like an elevated mixed layer (EML) will advect over the region ahead of this system with Gulf of Mexico moisture returning northward into the region. This should lead to moderate amounts of instability (especially over southern Missouri) as the system arrives Tuesday night. Deep layer shear will also be supportive of organized convection.

One of the bigger questions to answer is whether or not convection can fire along or ahead of an incoming cold front given that a decent capping inversion will be in place. It is quite possible that thunderstorms may be slightly post-frontal. Regardless, CAPE/shear profiles alone are supportive of at least a limited risk for strong to severe storms for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

This system looks as if it will be fairly progressive moving through. However, a widespread one to two inch rainfall is quite possible across the region. With streams and rivers already high, this may lead to some hydro concerns.

WEDNESDAY...

We may then see another day or two of quiet weather behind the midweek system before active weather returns by next weekend. Global models continue to indicate a large scale setup that would favor more heavy rainfall and the potential for strong to severe storms. Details regarding these potential hazards will become clearer throughout the upcoming week.

THURSDAY ONWARDS

Confidence in a flooding event has therefore become high enough to post a Flash Flood Watch (will be out by 4 AM) for all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme Southeastern Kansas from Friday night through Sunday. Widespread storm total amounts are still expected to be in the 3-6" range, but with a caveat. With convective elements in play for the duration of the event, locally higher amounts are quite likely (in the 8" plus range). It is still a bit early to nail down where the heaviest rain will fall.

Not to be outdone, the potential for severe storms will also be present with this setup starting as early as Friday night. South of that strengthening front, moderate amounts of instability will be present with sufficient deep layer shear for strong to severe storms. If supercells can develop, large hail to the size of golf balls would be possible. The tornado threat will have to be monitored as super cell motions would tend to parallel the front. Even north of the front, elevated hailers will be possible.

The key to the severe potential Friday night will be where that front sets up. The NAM has it draped across south-central Missouri with the ECMWF a bit farther north. In contrast, the GFS keeps it just south of the Arkansas border. We are leaning towards that front at least making it as far north as southern Missouri. The severe threat would then continue into Saturday, especially along and south of where that front sets up.

The main upper level support for this system will then pull through the region from Sunday into Sunday night. The main shower/thunderstorm threat should begin to diminish later in the day on Sunday, however some light wrap-around precipitation will remain possible into Sunday night or even Monday.