Forsyth MO. - Monday, August the 2nd will kick off the second work week for my area in southwest Missouri and very little change in the weather patterns we've grown used to will change very much.
On Monday, we can expect an upper level trough or front to have moved into the the Pacific northwest which will have the effect of amplifying an existing ridge of high pressure the was over the Rockies, but will then edge onto the Central Plains by later that day. And, by now, we all know what high pressure signifies - more hot temperatures. But wait, there will also be ample stagnant moist air in place, so we will also find things to be muggy as well. Note that the over all temperature pattern will be below what we had in the first week, but not by much! Bottom line: Expect stifling heat. Thursday, however, will be the last day of this sort of stuff as unsettled conditions will start on Friday!
Update: An unsettled period will begin
in earnest on Friday as the remnants of the nocturnal MCS push
southeast across the area during the morning. Thunderstorms should be
very efficient rain
producers with potential rain values of
2" to 2.25". The main upper jet energy will lift northeast
Friday night with weak flow out of the southwest continuing over the
area which will cause the frontal boundary to stall out across the
area. The heavy rain axis over the remainder of the weekend into
early next week will be dependent on where the front sets up, but at
this point it looks like the best axis of heavy rain will be across
the southeast half of the CWA, but may begin to expand back to the
north during the early part of next week. It does appear that our
area will receive a decent amount of rain and there will be an
increasing flood risk as the weekend progresses.
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