As we've seen in the past two nights
(Tues and Wed), a mesoscale convective system is expected to develop
across the northern plains and move southeast and into Missouri
overnight tonight. This system is then expected to begin to move into
central Missouri around midnight and then progress southward through
Friday morning. At this point, expectations tonight is for the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and impact
much of the Ozarks tonight through Friday morning. The primary hazard
will be damaging straight line winds though hail to the size of
quarters will also be possible with the stronger updrafts.
One thing that will aid as a focusing
mechanism overnight, will be a cold front that will also begin to
move towards the region. Computer models, at this point in time, do have some timing
differences with the front with the ECMWF faster than the GFS. The EC
moves the front through by late Friday morning with the GFS slower,
finally moving the front just south of the Missouri/Arkansas state
line late Friday night into Saturday morning. So, keep tuned to local weather media outlets just to be safe.
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