Forecast for the weekend of July 9 and the following work week!

Due to the amount of moisture and instability present within the Ozarks air mass, there will be continuous rainfall chances over the next several days. However, this is somewhat misleading, as many locations may not experience rain at all through next week.

Upper level ridging will be in place, while a frontal zone that has been triggering our recent storms will shift to the north. Therefore, afternoon air mass storms may be our best bet for rainfall Sunday through Tuesday night.

MCS moved south to north

Of course there is a chance that an MCV, (or mesoscale cyclonic vortex) may approach and form a storm cluster, but there really isn`t much of a noticeable trigger until we get to the middle of next week. By then, another frontal system approaches from the north which will bring more of a widespread risk for thunderstorms. [The Forsyth area got a good shot of this kind of system on Sunday afternoon with six tenths of an inch of rain, hail and lots of lightening!]

Pea-sized hail

Rain chances will then continue to increase through the balance of the week and into the following weekend as the Ozarks looks to be positioned on the northeast periphery of a summertime high. This is an ideal location for thunderstorm development from approaching weak disturbances.

Friday and into early Saturday, at this time, looks to be a particularly wet period. Temperatures for both days would be held down due to clouds and rain with highs only topping out into the middle 80's across much of the area.

Wednesday, Jul 13 - A nocturnal low level jet will crank up again tonight, however nosing more into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. A passing mid level impulse will also likely aid in the development of a cluster of showers and thunderstorms. If a MCS forms, it would likely track through the northeast half of the area with a threat for damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall. Both the NAM and GFS show this occurring however placement issues exist. The NAM shows a strong MCS with a deep cold pool moving through most of the area overnight and this will bear watching for the damaging wind threat.

Ongoing storms are possible Friday morning with additional storm chances Friday afternoon and evening as additional weak impulses approach the area and interact with a moist and unstable air mass. And, while several rounds of heavy rainfall are possible through this week, it is unclear as to where each heavy round occurs. Some locations will likely end up with a couple inches of rainfall through this weeks end. Any flooding threat will likely be a mesoscale forecast challenge which means we don't have a clue.

Wednesday, July 14 - Hooray! On this date my area finally crossed over into positive territory in the rainfall department for the month. That makes July the first month where the actual rainfall exceeded the average!

In general, though, for temperatures to be seasonable with highs in the upper 80's and lower 90's on an afternoon basis. Beyond Saturday, July the 16th, a ridge of high pressure will build into the region bring mostly clear skies and hot weather. There will also be little chance for rain during that work week!  [www.taneyservices.com] Note: Smattering; a small amount of something.