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| Example of a squall line! |
Wednesday and Wednesday night will
likely be interesting from a weather standpoint. First off, there
appears to be the potential for a mesoscale convective system (think
medium sized storms) to develop across northeastern Kansas during the
predawn hours and then slide to the east- southeast towards central
Missouri during the morning hours.
Meanwhile, the atmosphere will become
highly unstable by the afternoon with mid level energy vectors or
CAPES easily reaching into the 2000-3000 J/kg range. (Values may even
exceed 3000 J/kg across western Missouri as low level moisture begins
to pool ahead of an approaching cold front). What that means is that
enough 'energy' will be present in the air to charge up a storm
system or two..
It is quite possible that
overnight/early morning convection (the rapid movement of air of
different temps) could throw out outflow boundaries that trigger
storm development into the afternoon.
Additionally, the aforementioned cold
front will likely initiate additional storms during the late
afternoon/early evening across southeastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri. The setup then remains favorable for what should be a
squall line pushing southeast across much of the area Wednesday
night. Something to watch for, at any rate!
And, never forget that we may get absolutely nothing out of this system.....
Note: Most all of my weather 'forecasts' are modified excerpts from statements made by the National Weather Service, operating out of Springfield Missouri.
Update: May 11, 11AM - To my untrained eye, the radar at right looks to be something of a CF - I failed to see much potential for any storm development over southern Missouri for late in the day! I could discern what looked like a developing dry line over western Texas. I was also perplexed as to the meaning of the 'pink' colored frontal system situated over on the Kansas and Missouri borders. Not sure how to read that??
11:30 AM - The temperature in the Forsyth MO area was 81°F under partly cloudy skies. The relative humidity was at 64%, and so was rather moist. Off to the southwest, radar was picking up some small cells which were moving in a northeast direction.
12:00 Noon - I took a picture of the sky to the west - just a few lazy cumulus hanging out at the that time. The temperature had climbed a degree, then at 82F with a light southwest wind at 0-15 mph.
4:00 PM - Whatever storms that might develop tonight, will develop east of the Taney County area. Well, someone will get some rain, just not us.
Update: May 12, 4:00 AM - While it wasn't exactly a flooding rain, we did get a storm or two in the area!
And, never forget that we may get absolutely nothing out of this system.....
Note: Most all of my weather 'forecasts' are modified excerpts from statements made by the National Weather Service, operating out of Springfield Missouri.
11:30 AM - The temperature in the Forsyth MO area was 81°F under partly cloudy skies. The relative humidity was at 64%, and so was rather moist. Off to the southwest, radar was picking up some small cells which were moving in a northeast direction. |
| Looking west |
12:00 Noon - I took a picture of the sky to the west - just a few lazy cumulus hanging out at the that time. The temperature had climbed a degree, then at 82F with a light southwest wind at 0-15 mph.
4:00 PM - Whatever storms that might develop tonight, will develop east of the Taney County area. Well, someone will get some rain, just not us.
Update: May 12, 4:00 AM - While it wasn't exactly a flooding rain, we did get a storm or two in the area!
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