Friday, May 13, 2016

Heavy rains possible starting on Monday May 16!

Sometime around Sunday night May 15, Canadian high pressure will start to push east, with flow aloft becoming more zonal (west to east) in nature. A warm front will then start to move back north toward the region, with several rounds of rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms across the area as the front approaches Monday. Computer model guidance then suggests that the front will stall out near the Missouri/Arkansas state line by late Monday night, with several shortwaves interacting with it through Tuesday night. This would likely result in several rounds of rain and elevated convection, though much will depend on the final frontal position. So stay tuned to your local media outlets and bring a weather radio with you if you're out in a boat or camping.

By the tail end of the forecast period, guidance is in general agreement in pushing the front south, with high pressure (and drier conditions) nosing in for a few days []. Source: NWS SGF

Update: Sunday, May 15 -This from the NWS (some excerpting by me):

'Precipitation chances will increase from the west this evening and especially overnight, as isentropic ascent (the lifting of air that is traveling along an upward-sloping surface) increases ahead/north of a slow moving warm front. Precipitation should initially be in the form of fairly light rain showers, with more substantial rain and a few embedded thunderstorms developing towards early Monday morning.'

While widespread rainfall is expected, amounts will be limited to a half inch through Monday afternoon as instability to remain virtually non existent due to poor lapse rates and lack of supporting kinematics.

SEVERE WX CHANCES: Tuesday: If the surface warm front remains just south of the area as currently expected, that should mitigate the severe weather threat considerably, though it's possible that a stray severe storm could begin within the warm sector of this system and wander along or north of the front for a time. Otherwise the threat for Taney County would be the increasing chances for some heavy rains!

Bottom line: The rains, she is a coming round the bend!

Update: Monday, May 16 - Ah, Mother Nature is a fickle bitch! After much hoopla, it now appears as though most of the rain action will be sweeping across the Missouri state north of the I-44 corridor. Other factors also indicate that along with a slower than expected start, there will be a quicker than thought end to this system such that it will all be over sometime Tuesday!

New bottom line: That rain is a going round someone else's bend!

Update: Tuesday, May 17 - By the morning hours, it looked as though things were winding down with the storm center moving off to the east. And, as the graphic at right shows, the center part of the Missouri state got the largest amounts of rainfall! That was fine with me as that was exactly the area that had been most impacted by the recent mini drought conditions! And, not to worry, we have yet another rain system coming our way on Wednesday, May the 18th!

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