November 2012 mid-month update!

In over 20 years I've never seen this area creek so low!

 Say what you will, but the first two weeks of November (concerning the weather and otherwise) was anything but boring. Let me recap….

I spent a lot of time on this map!

Week One: Hurricane Sandy hits the east coast in what has been billed as the storm of the century! President Obama kept his office is what has been billed as the cover-up of all time and yes, there was a minor blizzard also courtesy of Sandy in the Appalachians.

Week Two: The mercury had begun to make somewhat of a habit of dropping down into the twenties overnight. The drought (see picture) that is slowly strangling the Midwest tightened its hold. CIA Director Petraeus was caught with his knickers down and yes, his testimony concerning Libya might just prove to be damning to the Administration.

So, what does it all mean? Well, one could say that, if that was Act One, I can hardly wait to see what the next two weeks brings our way.

The winds of weather change comeith!

November the 11^th dawned warm, overcast and a tad windy! All three elements would make even the most simple person perhaps a little bit uneasy, even if they didn’t know why. At 6Am it was 65 degrees outside and since it was November, I found that to be somewhat ‘agrunusual, (agreeable, but unusual at the same time).

Arising from my bed with a bound, a quick check on my computer disclosed the reason. My home, here in southwest Missouri, was in a good and strong flow of warm air arriving from the south! And actually, this was a situation that had been going on for a couple of days now as it had brought warm days and mild night as a result. However, as in any good weather novel, there was a despoiler waiting in the wings to mess with an otherwise angelic plot.

Enter stage left, a nasty old cold front that is seeking to restore the season post haste. This is Old Man Winter (in disguise of course, as it’s much too early for him to reveal his true self). Instead, he is taking on the appearance of plain Jane cold air that is; rushing, scuttling, sliding (take your pick) down my way just in time to spoil a planned walk in the woods. Alas, and coming with him is Ms. Showers, a lady who likes to cry all the time and soak everything with tears. Between the two of them they can make even the biggest nature lover run to cover. Ah well, its back to hunkering down next to a warm hearth for me.

Early November 2012 Wx Update

Jet stream pattern highly non-zonal

The North American continent looks to be in schedule for an early winter as a number of factors seem to be in play to encourage the odds in that favor.

Two early events; hurricane Sandy (which hit right at the start of November) and the Nor’easter storm that occurred towards the end of the first week are indicators, to me, of a global shift in the long waves personified by the jet stream that had already become persistent starting in late October.

Two other global factors including the shifting ENSO towards a positive El Nino and a solar max that has been anything will also possibly encourage more dramatic inflows of arctic air early on. This general pattern will lead to more and more dramatic cold fronts, especially across the east coastal regions as we get into the latter part of the month.

Other more minor indicators of a shift will snow that might develop towards this coming weekend in parts of central Missouri. Nothing in the way of accumulation, but would be fun to see.

Nor'easter set to slam East Coast on Election Day?

This Nor'easter caused the blizzard of 2006!

While millions struggle to get over the effects of Hurricane Sandy, Mother Nature may be setting the stage for yet another storm set to impact the northeast coast sometime around Election Day 2012! Could it be that God is trying to tell these folks something?

This far out in time (3 days), it's hard to know for sure what the track of this storm will take. Most computer models have it moving south to north pretty far off shore. And, while it will be no where near as strong as the recent hurricane, any inclement weather that impacts the storm ravaged coast will be sorely felt.

While weather specialists are telling everyone that this event should be minimal in power and effect, they are also expressing some concern and are watching developments closely.

October 2012 Weather Summery

A few of my observations concerning the month of October 2012:

1. The month was much cooler than normal across much of the Ozarks while being only a couple of degrees cooler here in the Forsyth area. Also, it's interesting to note that while the days were cooler, the nights average one degree warmer than normal.
2. There were two significant cold fronts that affected the southwest Missouri area; one in the first week of the month and one towards the end of the month. I used both the occasions to perform experiments designed to save heating costs; reference experiments #10712 and #102712.
3. Precipitation across the area was slightly above normal even though a long term drought persists.
4. Parts of central Missouri experienced a brief interlude of frozen precipitation.
5. The latest ENSO cycle report is ticking now towards a positive direction.
6. Solar radiation continues to be weaker than in years past.
7. The Arctic Oscillation is trending negative indicating a non-zonal jet stream pattern for the North American continent as a whole.

Conclusions and Trends

I'm inclined to continue with a trend towards a colder and wetter (?) than normal winter pattern combined with non-zonal jet streams persisting through January of 2013. Look for sharply colder weather towards the end of November with an increased likelihood of ice accumulations in December.