A few of my observations concerning the
month of October 2012:
- The month was much cooler than normal across much of the Ozarks while being only a couple of degrees cooler here in the Forsyth area. Also, it's interesting to note that while the days were cooler, the nights average one degree warmer than normal.
- There were two significant cold fronts that affected the southwest Missouri area; one in the first week of the month and one towards the end of the month. I used both the occasions to perform experiments designed to save heating costs; reference experiments #10712 and #102712.
- Precipitation across the area was slightly above normal even though a long term drought persists.
- Parts of central Missouri experienced a brief interlude of frozen precipitation.
- The latest ENSO cycle report is ticking now towards a positive direction.
- Solar radiation continues to be weaker than in years past.
- The Arctic Oscillation is trending negative indicating a non-zonal jet stream pattern for the North American continent as a whole.
Conclusions and Trends
I'm inclined to continue with a trend
towards a colder and wetter (?) than normal winter pattern combined with non-zonal jet streams persisting through January of 2013. Look for sharply
colder weather towards the end of November with an increased
likelihood of ice accumulations in December.
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