After looking through some of the
technical jargon from the National Weather Service, I was able to
come up with a few snippets of information concerning the educated
'guessing' that will make up part of the long range forecast for
North America this coming spring and summer.
Two of the large driving forces for
weather, the ENSO or El Nina Southern Oscillation and the AO or
Arctic Oscillation seem to be change dynamically as we head into
early spring. While we have been living under the effects of La Nina
for some time now, that appears to be weakening. This may have the
effect of bringing wetter conditions along the northwest and
northeastern coasts while dryer conditions will prevail across much
of the south.
In addition the Arctic Oscillation
which had been strongly negative the past two winters has shifted to
positive earlier this winter and the trend of warmer weather for the
states should then continue. Just these two factors along would imply
that southwest Missouri can expect to see dry, but warmer than normal
conditions as we head into the spring months.
I'm not sure if anything has been
released officially at this point and want to remind my readers that
I am not a meteorologist.
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