Mid March 2019 forecast temps!

Forsyth Mo. - Mid March was to be everything cool, everything slightly wet and nothing to enjoy outdoors! Unless you're a duck, perhaps!

Update: Last 11 days of March looking good!

River Run closed in March 2019!

Forsyth MO. - One of two popular parks near the town of Forsyth Mo. which is situated in southwest corner of the state was closed recently and just why remained a mystery to me.

For whatever reason, the Army Corps of Engineers located in the Little Rock District of Arkansas and who can be reached by calling (870) 445-7166, had decided to close the park to public access as I discovered on the morning of Friday, March 8, 2019. The Park itself was mostly high and dry as water levels at Bull Shoals were dropping fairly rapidly. The graphic at right depicts the water levels as of March 8, 2019. The level at 9AM that day was measured at 665.66 feet or about 6.66 feet above normal levels.

So, the question becomes... Just what does the Corps know that the rest of us don't. Perhaps some who read this can give them a call to find out!

Bull Shoals levels holding in there!

Forsyth Mo. - Thanks to a somewhat lackluster start to March 2019 in the rainfall department, the Bull Shoals Lake levels had dropped back down, just a bit, with the trend likely to continue until around March 8 and 9 when storms were forecast to impact the region. That said Beaver Lake was 1.63 feet above full pool and thus posed a potential problem if we were to be inundated with heavy rains at any point in the month! Please note that the level at which the Corps of Engineers would actually close River Run is mere conjecture on my part.


Update: March 5 - Powersite dam was running strong!And, the Corps must have also been releasing at the dam by the border as River Run Park looked to be in fairly good shape with the water level at 667.47 feet.

Update : March 6 - The lake levels continued to drop, so that was good news. The only fly in the ointment was the unsettled weather pattern that was shaping up towards the start of the second week of March! This from the NWS: "Amplified upper-level flow returns for Tuesday and Wednesday as the models hint at another robust shortwave trough digging across the Dessert Southwest, with its axis taking on a negative tilt as it aims toward the central and southern Plains, as well as the Missouri Ozarks."

Update: March 8 - Bull Shoals water levels now below flood stage for River Run. And, it looked like no real heavy rains were in the immediate future!This from the NWS: At this time instability appears to be more limited across the area with the better thunderstorm potential looking to remain southwest of the area at this time.

Update: March 9 - I recorded a .81 inch rainfall that looked like it covered pretty much the entire Tri-Lake region. That much rain could pose a problem for rising lake levels.

Update: March 10 - After the region got a good dose of rainfall, Bull Shoals was still trending slightly downwards. Good news! However, as the current NWS forecast for the coming mid work week was: ' A cold front will sweep across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Lift will increase across the area resulting in widespread showers to develop across the area Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Three quarters to one and one quarter inches of rainfall is expected with this system. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible, but overall instability appears to be more lacking and not expecting any severe storms at this time. Northwest flow then sets up across the region late in the week and will result in below normal temperatures into next weekend.' So, another .75 to 1.25 inches of rainfall would keep things interesting. Stay tuned.
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March 2 2019 Snow event!

Taney County Mo. - It was a Saturday, March 2nd, 2019 and the NWS was calling for snow to fall across much of southwest Missouri. As in all such cases, a lot of guesswork was out there concerning precipitation forms (wet versus frozen), types (rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow) and overall amounts. The current thinking for Taney County Missouri was for about two inches of snow with the start late in the day as any rain or drizzle that existed would change over snow.

As per the 5:38 AM dialog, the NWS stated;  'The upper level trough (area of low pressure) will help deepen a surface low over west Texas later today before moving across the lower Mississippi Valley late tonight and Sunday. Moisture will be pulled up and over the system and interact with the cold air mass overspreading much of the central U.S.' This setup did portend that snow would fall, with exactly how much and of what forms still to be determined. (Unfortunately, that left evening commuters pretty much clueless). Following are 'updates' that I planned to make beginning later in the afternoon. These would be intended for the immediate area around Forsyth and would likely not be representative of the rest of Taney County! My updates will look something like this:

 

9:46 AM - Sky was overcast with no forms of precipitation. The apparent snow in the radar at right is 'virga' - precip that is not making it to the ground.

www.taneyweather.com

See? Easy peasey. I also intended to insert comments at any times where I saw or heard about any significant events happening. So, stay turned. The weather 'action' should begin much later today and overnight. This could be a pretty late event, but I planned to be vigilant.

12:30 PM - The outdoor temps had shown a trend downwards (.17° per hour). Winds were also veering towards the north. Nothing really that major. And, as it turned out everything more or less stabilized after the 1PM hour.

1:40 PM - At this hour, the freezing line was still off to the northwest. I was making a guess that it would be after 6PM before it made its way into the Taney County area. Also, I noted the light and variable nature of the winds.

5:00 PM - Latest forecast from the Weather Service is zeroing in on a 3AM to 9AM period when snow might impact area traffic in and around Taney County.I'll set my alarm clock for an early start Sunday!

10:30 PM - The radar was showing echos from the west. Snow, virga or what? Going to sleep and will try and awake at about 3AM. Late night folks can track the event at www.taneyweather.com!

5:10 AM - Pretty much a blown forecast, that is, if we don't get some snow off the back side of the system which was making fast tracks off to the east. I did note a bit of ice on an exposed railing. There were also some indications of a band of snow approaching from the west.


5:45 AM - If that snow that is indicated on the left and which is approaching fairly quickly is the real thing, I'm thinking it will hit just in time for the morning rush for church!

6:20 AM - Observed snow falling. I did not feel that the event was going to last very long, however.

In the graphic, at left, you can see that the snow band was fairly thin. For a live link to the 76 Strip in Branson click here.

So, that pretty much is a wrap for this winter season as we will be warming up by mid week. The next stormy weather was shaping up to hit late in the work week and should be i n the form of some rain and thunder.

Bull Shoals water levels may hold steady!

River Run Park in trouble!

Forsyth MO. - As a local who likes to enjoy two parks that grace the area, I had taken a keen interest in tracking the current rapid rise of waters in the the Bull Shoals Lake. As of this post, one of the two parks, River Run had begun to flood out. However, Shadowrock was still high and dry. At least for now.

Minor drop in level observed on Feb 25

 What was encouraging to me was fact that the rate of increase had slowed quite a bit. even to the point where I could hope to see it decline a bit in the later part of February. The flies in the ointment here were two; water levels at Beaver Lake continued to be about two feet above full pool and release rates at the Bull Shoals dam near the Arkansas border were still being restricted due to the time of year. And, as spring was still a few weeks off, I found that troubling.

The good news was that, while rain would likely occur over the next ten days, it also appeared to be on the light side of things! So, if we don't get much rain and if Bull Shoals dam does increase their releases and so on and so forth.... at least one of the parks might be spared from flooding.

Note: My estimates of when a park might flood out are just that, estimates.

Update: Army Corps of Engineers to Open Two Gates at Table Rock Dam on Tuesday, March 5, 2019. They needed to perform maintenance on two turbines - I was not sure if this would affect Bull Shoals.

Will early March Wx see improvements? Probably not!

So, while we all enjoy a mini-dry spell for a day or two, there exists more chances for rain along about mid week. Confidence was increasing in seeing shortwave energy sweeping through Tuesday night thru Thursday. It is anticipated this will bring chances for light rain across the region throughout the day on Wednesday. However, with the intrusion of colder air late Wednesday night into Thursday, the concern becomes the possibility of seeing mixed wintry precipitation, (most of which is likely to fall north of the I-44 corridor). Otherwise light rain all around. meh

Then, as we edge on out of February and into the first weekend of March 2019, another frontal system will take aim at the region by Friday (March 1) as a warm front lifts north across the region.

While the models continue to vary on solutions, it does appear there is a potential for some instability getting into Missouri and will be something to keep an eye on. This system is quickly overcome by a much stronger intrusion of high pressure and colder temperatures. Highs next Saturday through early next week look to only top out in the 30s with lows in the teens/lower 20s across the region. Current models suggest a few chances of seeing light snow to go along with the below average temperatures next weekend. Double meh

www.taneyweather.com

Past four years of rain in Forsyth MO!

Forsyth MO - Just for fun, I thought to post the last four years of rainfall as recording in the Forsyth Missouri area. The readings were obtained from a Davis Weather Monitor III rain gauge. I'll try and update this on a monthly basis as we move into 2019! Click on graphic to enlarge.