Frigid spells not welcome!

Forsyth MO. – It was not very surprising that my little town of Forsyth Missouri, situated in the southwestern corner of the state, might get some cold air filtering down from the northern tier from time to time. On January the 28^th that time had apparently swung around.

Note: Cold to my way of thinking, real cold that is, happens whenever the mercury reads in the teens overnight. (Temperatures like that oftentimes cause my furnace to run like the devil)! And, it you add the insult of those readings to less than really cold daytime readings, well then, that's a definite problem!

The National Weather Service published this graphic on Saturday, January the 26^th.  It didn't take a genius to figure out that Tuesday and Wednesday (the 29th and 30th) were 'likely' going to cause some people some trouble. A high of 30°F and a low of 13°F averaged out to just about 21.5 degrees and that level of cold was more than low enough to freeze unprotected pipes and to kill pets, if left unattended outside. (I took some solace from the fact that those forecasts were for the Springfield MO area, which was about sixty mile to the north of my town). Still, I knew that it was going to be cold enough down my way to likely cause my electric company in Canada some great joy!

SOME PERSPECTIVE

Up to this point in time, the average recorded temperature had been at about 38.9 degrees. That was a few degrees above the normal of 33 for this time of year. (Global warming?). Even so, as the scatter chart at left illustrates, I was burning quite a bit of power just to stay warm! (For those not accustomed to this kind of chart, the y axis represents kilowatt hours used versus the average recorded temperature for the day. Basically, the colder it gets the more electrical power used as my place is all electric)! Note that, whenever the average temperature drops below 25 degrees the power trend tends to wander up off the scale! Not good, as even a 70 kWh day equated to about nine dollars real money!

So, the stage was set. I'll post a followup after we get through that period of time! www.taneyweather.com

First ten days in January 2019 looking good!

Forsyth MO - I hope everyone survived New Years Day intact! I was recovering from a hard cold and so was oblivious to most everything that was going on. Sorry about that. But, as a gift, I've contacted the head Weather Honcho up in there in the sky and was able to get us a WINTER RESPITE! Yes, things will be going our way for the first ten days of the year!

As you can see in the forecast graphic above, we will be considerably up above the temperature norms for a good stretch of time. See more at www.taneyweather.com!

Winter Storm arriving Dec 26?

It was December the 20th, and on this date, the NWS was beginning to take notice of a very large and intense low pressure system that was currently located off in the Pacific. No one was sure, at the time, as to the track or impact that this system might have on Midwestern states around December the 26^th! At the time, all three computer models were in agreement that there was going to be some sort of weather related impact! I planned to track the progress of this low to see what it does...

Dec 20 - While it was windy in the center part of the Midwest,  low pressure system was still slowly approaching the West Coast on Thursday.

 Dec 21 - There was still a large amount of uncertainty as the the track of this large storm. On model, the GFS (Global Forecast System - One of the operational forecast models run at NCEP. The GFS is run four times daily, with forecast output out to 384 hours) sees the system running a southerly track while the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Operational references in forecast discussions typically refer to the ECMWF's medium-range numerical forecast model, which runs out to 10 days) is calling for a more northerly run. We could see rain with one and snow with the other. Stay turned.

Mid month temps looks to be above average!

Taney County MO. - The middle of December is generally a pretty tame period of time, weather wise. And, just as the averages of the last four years show in the graphic above SW MO to be a little warmer than average, this December seems to be following a slightly cooler which is also a more normal track.

Then, looking at the projected average temps for the middle of the month (see graphic at right), show every indication that we will be following well above the 30 year historical average of 35°F. As of Dec 17 we were 7 degrees above the average, as measured at the Forsyth MO location.

And, as of the 17th, there were no indicators pointing to any severe winter weather during the remainder of that period of time.

Early December storm could pose travel problems!

Friday Dec 7 and Saturday Dec 8 Wx maps

 Taney County MO -  From a "classic" heavy snowfall standpoint for the Missouri Ozarks, there are some large concerns when slicing and dicing the global Models. Even a small shift in the track of the center of low pressure will result in very large changes in what could occur over southern Missouri. That said, the NWS will be issuing a Winter Storm Watch  for far southern Missouri.

 Accumulations of snow from 3 to 6 inches (and more) are possible with some icing occurring in the SW corner of the state. Bottom line! Stay glued to local media weather outlets as we get closer to the weekend! www.taneyweather.com

Below normal temps over the weekend of Dec 7th!

Forecast highs and lows

Taney County, Mo.- Everyone should maybe to try and take advantage of Wednesday's brief warm up! With temps in the low 50's on that day, it could be a good time to get in some groceries, gas up the car and maybe stoke the old furnace. The temperatures outdoor will be taking a bit of a dive, beginning on Thursday, with a winter storm threatening to swing by late Friday into Saturday! Compared to the average of 35 degrees, these next five days will all be well below that number! In addition, winds out of the NW could affect the wind chill readings! Adding those to the chance of a snowfall that could stick on the ground for awhile and you have a recipe for some potential winter problems cropping up if you're not prepared! www.taneyweather.com

Snow chances increasing for weekend!

Fri-Sat Winter forecast: All weather eyes will likely be on the coming weekend as a rather powerful system could impact the region. At this time, it looks like colder air aloft will turn most of the precipitation into snow with accumulating snow expected with higher amounts over southern Missouri, including Taney County. Potential accumulations of up to 4 inches are possible along the MO/AR border. This forecast is likely to change right up to Friday night, so stay tuned to weather outlets, if you will be traveling. www.taneyweather.com