Why I'm all in for Global Warming!

Over the past many years, I've maintained a small weather reporting station (Davis Weather Monitor II), that despite its age, has been recording fairly accurately. Below, for instance, is a graph of the last five August's low temperature averages (note that 2015 was missing).

Many climatologists seem to agree that the best test of Global Warming would be to watch and see how well the atmosphere cools each day. Therefore, they watch the average lows to get a feel for what's going on over time. The graph above shows an average increase of 3 degrees for that '6' year span. A trend that I've seen played out again and again for every month and over many years.

So, does that indicate that things are getting warmer for Mother Earth? You betcha. As far as I'm concerned the results are in and we all will be seeing the effects of warming weather here where I live in southwest Missouri!

Here's the deal. Rather than worry about it, I actually am looking forward to a January where we will be able to have palm trees in my neighborhood! Yes, I like the increased heat! Now, does that make me some kind of nut? Perhaps, but as I have only a relatively short span of time left on earth - well that's all I really care about. You see, one second after I'm dead, I won't give a damn, will I? And anyway according to the article Sperm Zero, we're all going to be extinct by about 2046...

After a very hot summer 2018, what about the coming winter?

SW MO - The summer of 2018 was on the wane on the last day of August, and in true fashion, it was warm at 90 degrees! Thus, in only about twenty more days, we will all bid adieu to what was one of the hottest summers on record for the Midwest. Fall will arrive promptly on Saturday, September the 22^nd and I'd like to think that many of us just might sigh with some relief! Hot and humid days spent indoors next to the AC will soon be replaced by much more livable, shorter and cooler days! A good time will be had by all! And, then, winter will inevitably arrive on the 21^st of December.... Arrg!

So, what can we expect on the days following the shortest day of the year? Well, if you believe in the Farmer's Almanac, the signals were a bit mixed this time around. Here's a quote from Farmers' Almanac Editor and Philom Peter Geiger. "Contrary to some stories floating around on the internet, our time-tested, long-range formula is pointing towards a very long, cold, and snow-filled winter.” He then went on to state, "We stand by our forecast and formula, which accurately predicted most of the winter storms last year as well as this summer's steamy, hot conditions." Hmmm.

But what about global warming and all that? That is a good question. However, whenever you have a planet with seven and a half billion souls, many of who live by burning wood and coal and when you have an extremely complex climate with melting poles adding tons of fresh water to salty oceans....

The bottom line is that we will all just have to wait and see what will be.....

Summer heat to really set in!

SW MO. – By mid week on July 11, the southwest Missouri area will be getting a good dose of summer time heat with highs working their way into the mid nineties and then hanging out there for a while. With heat advisories likely, the only hope for any relief will be popup styled storms that will likely be few and far between.

On the early heat of the season for 2018!

Forsyth MO. - It was just half past 10AM on June 27, 2018 and already the outdoors temperature hung momentarily at 85 before going upwards! Adding insult to injury, the humidity was no slouch either, coming in at 62%! Area-wide, the National Weather Service had issued a heat advisory with planned readings in excess of 100 degrees by the following day. As a weather watcher of many years, I was growing a bit concerned.

My feelings were based partly on science and partly on intuition. June was coming in far above normal! (Highs were 5 degrees above normal and lows 8). When averaged, that was 6.5 degrees above the 30 year average... (And, that trend of it being warmer than normal has been going on for some time now). So, what's that mean for the coming month of July. Well, since the normal high and low for that month was 89/65 (Fahrenheit), then after applying an average 6.5 increase, you'd get 95.5 and 71.5 degrees respectively! Note that the thing about averages is that the actual temps will tend to wander around that average, with some days being higher while others could be much lower on any given day. So, while we might get a rainy day here and there that might help, we'd also get a lot of days that would see readings well above 100 degrees! [Wait! Is that what I'm forecasting for July?] No. I'm just prognosticating based on trends I've observed. It's also possible that July will turn out colder than normal, but I'm wouldn't bet the bank on that happening.

Another consideration for a really hot July would be the increased severity of any storms that might ride through an area on a frontal system or merely popup in the late afternoon. (The warmer and the moister the air packet, the faster and higher it will rise in the atmosphere). Such explosive potential is part of what can give rise to very large hail streaks, gustnadoes and the like. Oh, yes and lightening can also increase in intensity too! All in all, not a very fun scenario for those who spend time outdoors. At right, on an otherwise clear day, a couple of short-lived indicators for hail showed up at about 11AM in the morning!

The bottom line will be for everyone to be weather aware when out and about this summer. A weather radio would be a good thing to have, especially if you like to go boating.  www.taneyweather.com

Sunday, June 24, could be interesting weather wise!

Taney County MO. - After a nice and quiet Saturday, the next day - Sunday, June 24 could prove to be anything but as the weather computers are forecasting a fast moving and energy laden storm system swooping out of Kansas into southwest Missouri early Sunday morning!

Depending on a number of factors, some unfortunate locations could see straight line winds, large hail and even tornadoes, as the frontal system sweeps through the region! www.taneyweather.com

Doppler radar down in Springfield!

Anyone who might drive close to the Springfield Missouri airport may have spotted a tower with a white egg on top of it. That's the National Weather Service's Doppler radar which watches for storms all across southwestern Missouri. The trouble was that the radar went down on the 14^th of June due to a storm that caused one of the 'gear joints' break, in the aging 25 year old tower. Repairs were expected to take as long as a week. Thankfully, this coincided with a period that saw few storms in the region.

In this National radar composite above, you can plainly see the gap in coverage circled in black. The other radar sites can be discerned as gray splotches.  Should repairs not finish before a major storm outbreak, the Springfield site will get assistance from other cities to try and help keep everyone from harm. When and until it's functioning again, everyone will need to be especially aware of any popup storms that might come their way!

This was the official notice published by the NWS on June 15:

The WSR-88D Doppler Radar (KSGF) at Springfield, Missouri has experienced a hardware failure and is not operational at this time. Parts have been ordered to repair the radar and National Weather

Service radar technicians will be on site this week to begin repairs. The radar will be restored to normal operation as soon as possible.

So, how long will the site be down? I'm betting it will be back up by Wednesday, June 20..But, then again, I'm an incurable optimist! Note: I did reach out, via email, to the NWS but never received a response back.... At any rate, the amount of time it takes this essential government agency to repair that device will be a good indicator of the health of the NWS!

www.taneyweather.com

Is Forsyth Missouri in increased wind and hail peril?

Is tornado alley moving to the east?

Forsyth MO. – In just three years, my home has been subject to three large hail events and two tornadoes! Insurance damage incurred had risen in the the thousands of dollars, leaving some folks wondering what the heck was going on?

It's really no secret that the climate is changing in front of our eyes in 2018. Global temperature averages are on the rise, and as it gets warmer, storms can develop more often with a tendency towards increased violence! That seems to be most definitely the case in my location in southwest Missouri as of late. And anyone who has ventured out in June, has certainly experienced the above average heat!

So, what's the deal? Can we expect storm system to become more numerous and severe in nature. The answer is sort of. In actuality, it isn't so much the storms themselves, as it is their locations that may be changing. And it's possible that the area of the Nation known as tornado alley may be shifting more to the east as other climate factors come into play! Dr. Greg Forbes of the Weather Channel has an interesting short video on this subject.

Traditionally, storms move more and more to the north as we enter into the summer months. It will be interesting to see if that pattern holds for the rest of 2018!